ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE: RESULTS FROM A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL
This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using climate scenario simulations carried out with a fully coupled high–resolution global general circulation model....
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2008
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4681 |
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ftingv:oai:www.earth-prints.org:2122/4681 |
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Open Polar |
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Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) |
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language |
English |
topic |
Tropical Cyclones Climate Change Global Coupled Model 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate |
spellingShingle |
Tropical Cyclones Climate Change Global Coupled Model 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate Scoccimarro, E. Gualdi, S. Navarra, A. ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE: RESULTS FROM A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL |
topic_facet |
Tropical Cyclones Climate Change Global Coupled Model 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate |
description |
This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using climate scenario simulations carried out with a fully coupled high–resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the XX Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical north west Pacific (NWP) and north Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. The tropical cyclone-ocean interaction is captured by the model and the impact of the ocean response to the storm forcing is analyzed under different radiative forcing conditions. AMS Unpublished Orlando-Florida USA 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano open |
author2 |
Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia AMS Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Scoccimarro, E. Gualdi, S. Navarra, A. |
author_facet |
Scoccimarro, E. Gualdi, S. Navarra, A. |
author_sort |
Scoccimarro, E. |
title |
ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE: RESULTS FROM A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL |
title_short |
ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE: RESULTS FROM A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL |
title_full |
ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE: RESULTS FROM A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL |
title_fullStr |
ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE: RESULTS FROM A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL |
title_full_unstemmed |
ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE: RESULTS FROM A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL |
title_sort |
analysis of tropical cyclone activity in a warmer climate: results from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4681 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Bengtsson L., M. Botzet, M. Esch, 1995: Hurricane type vortices in a generalミcirculation model. Tellus-A 47, 175 196. Fichefet, T. and M.A. Morales Maqueda, 1997: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thrmodynamics and dynamics. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 12609-12646. Gualdi, S., E. Scoccimarro, A. Navarra, 2008: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model. Journal of Climate, October 2008. Madec, G., P. Delecluse, M. Imbard, and C. Lévy, 1998:.Technical Report. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, N°11, 91 pp. Roeckner, E., K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, , M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Denil, E. Esch,M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Reports 218, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 90 pp. Valke, S, L. Terray, A. Piacentini, 2000: The OASIS coupled user guide version 2.4, Technical Report TR/ CMGC/00-10, CERFACS. Walsh K.J.E, 1997: Objective detection of tropical cyclones in high resolution analyses. Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 958 977. Jones, P.D., T.J. Osborn, K.R. Briffa, C.K. Folland, E.B. Horton, L.V. Alexander, D.E. Parker, and N.A. Rayner, 2001. Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature time series. Journal of Geophysical Research 106:3371-3380. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4681 |
op_rights |
open |
_version_ |
1766134592961511424 |
spelling |
ftingv:oai:www.earth-prints.org:2122/4681 2023-05-15T17:35:25+02:00 ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE: RESULTS FROM A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL Scoccimarro, E. Gualdi, S. Navarra, A. Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia AMS Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia 2008-04 http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4681 en eng 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Bengtsson L., M. Botzet, M. Esch, 1995: Hurricane type vortices in a generalミcirculation model. Tellus-A 47, 175 196. Fichefet, T. and M.A. Morales Maqueda, 1997: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thrmodynamics and dynamics. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 12609-12646. Gualdi, S., E. Scoccimarro, A. Navarra, 2008: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model. Journal of Climate, October 2008. Madec, G., P. Delecluse, M. Imbard, and C. Lévy, 1998:.Technical Report. Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, N°11, 91 pp. Roeckner, E., K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, , M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Denil, E. Esch,M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Reports 218, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 90 pp. Valke, S, L. Terray, A. Piacentini, 2000: The OASIS coupled user guide version 2.4, Technical Report TR/ CMGC/00-10, CERFACS. Walsh K.J.E, 1997: Objective detection of tropical cyclones in high resolution analyses. Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 958 977. Jones, P.D., T.J. Osborn, K.R. Briffa, C.K. Folland, E.B. Horton, L.V. Alexander, D.E. Parker, and N.A. Rayner, 2001. Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature time series. Journal of Geophysical Research 106:3371-3380. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4681 open Tropical Cyclones Climate Change Global Coupled Model 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate Poster session 2008 ftingv 2022-07-29T06:05:10Z This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using climate scenario simulations carried out with a fully coupled high–resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the XX Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical north west Pacific (NWP) and north Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. The tropical cyclone-ocean interaction is captured by the model and the impact of the ocean response to the storm forcing is analyzed under different radiative forcing conditions. AMS Unpublished Orlando-Florida USA 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano open Other/Unknown Material North Atlantic Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) Pacific |