Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model.

This study investigates the possible changes that greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using scenario climate simulations carried out with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model. The capa...

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Published in:Journal of Climate
Main Authors: Gualdi, S., Scoccimarro, E., Navarra, A.
Other Authors: Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia, Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia, Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2008
Subjects:
Tropical Cyclone
Climate
01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
Pacific
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4272
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1
id ftingv:oai:www.earth-prints.org:2122/4272
record_format openpolar
institution Open Polar
collection Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)
op_collection_id ftingv
language English
topic Tropical Cyclone
Climate
01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
spellingShingle Tropical Cyclone
Climate
01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
Gualdi, S.
Scoccimarro, E.
Navarra, A.
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model.
topic_facet Tropical Cyclone
Climate
01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
description This study investigates the possible changes that greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using scenario climate simulations carried out with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the twentieth century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone–like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation, and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link TC occurrence with large-scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with reduced convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Finally, the action of the TCs remains well confined to the tropical region and the peak of TC number remains equatorward of 20° latitude in both hemispheres, notwithstanding the overall warming of the tropical upper ocean and the expansion poleward of warm SSTs. Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change. European Community project ENSEMBLES, Contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539. Published 5204-5228 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano JCR Journal reserved
author2 Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia
Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia
Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Gualdi, S.
Scoccimarro, E.
Navarra, A.
author_facet Gualdi, S.
Scoccimarro, E.
Navarra, A.
author_sort Gualdi, S.
title Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model.
title_short Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model.
title_full Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model.
title_fullStr Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model.
title_full_unstemmed Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model.
title_sort changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming: results from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model.
publishDate 2008
url http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4272
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1
geographic Pacific
geographic_facet Pacific
genre North Atlantic
genre_facet North Atlantic
op_relation Journal of Climate
/21 (2008)
Aiyyer, A. R., and C. Thorncroft, 2006: Climatology of vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. J. Climate, 19, 2969– 2983. 5226 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 21 Anthes, R. A., R. W. Corell, G. Holland, J. W. Hurrel, M. C. Mac- Cracken, and K. E. Trenberth, 2006: Hurricanes and global warming—Potential linkages and consequences. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 623–628. Behera, S. K., J. J. Luo, S. Masson, P. Delecluse, S. Gualdi, A. Navarra, and T. Yamagata, 2005: Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the East African short rains: A CGCM study. J. Climate, 18, 4514–4530. Bengtsson, L., M. Botzet, and M. Esch, 1995: Hurricane–type vortices in a general–circulation model. Tellus, 47A, 175–196. ——,——, and——, 1996: Will greenhouse gas–induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes? Tellus, 48A, 57–73. ——, K. I. Hodges, M. Esch, N. Keenlyside, L. Kornblueh, J.-J. Luo, and T. Yamagata, 2007: How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? Tellus, 59A, 539–561. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4801, doi:10.1029/ 2001JD000776. Blanke, B., and P. Delecluse, 1993: Low frequency variability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean simulated by a general circulation model with mixed layer physics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 1363– 1388. Broccoli, A. J., and S. Manabe, 1990: Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 1917–1920. Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, and S. E. Zebiak, 2004: Properties of tropical cyclones in atmospheric general circulation models. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Tech. Rep. 04-02, 72 pp. Chan, J. C.-L., 2000: Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960–2972. Chauvin, F., J.-F. Royer, and M. Deque, 2006: Response of hurricane- type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE- Climat at high resolution. Climate Dyn., 27, 377–399. Chia, H. H., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2934–2944. Delworth, T. L., and M. E. Mann, 2000: Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dyn., 16, 661–676. De Maria, M., J. A. Knaff, and B. H. Connell, 2001: A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 219–233. Dutton, J. F., C. J. Poulsen, and J. L. Evans, 2000: The effect of global climate change on the region of tropical convection in CSM1. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3049–3052. Elsner, J. B., and B. Kocher, 2000: Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 129–132. Emanuel, K. A., 1987: The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature, 326, 483–485. ——, 1994: Atmospheric Convection. Oxford University Press, 580 pp. ——, 2003: Tropical cyclones. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 31, 75–104. ——, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686–688. ——, and D. S. Nolan, 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10A.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/75463. pdf.] Fichefet, T., and M. A. Morales-Maqueda, 1999: Modelling the influence of snow accumulation and snow–ice formation on the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea-ice cover. Climate Dyn., 15, 251–268. Frank, W. M., 1977: The structure and energetics of the tropical cyclone I. The storm structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 1119– 1135. ——, and G. S. Young, 2007: The interannual variability of tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. 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Delecluse, 2003a: Assessment of the tropical Indo-Pacific climate in the SINTEX CGCM. Ann. Geophys., 46, 1–26. ——, E. Guilyardi, A. Navarra, S. Masina, and P. Delecluse, 2003b: The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM. Climate Dyn., 20, 567–582. Guilyardi, E., P. Delecluse, S. Gualdi, and A. Navarra, 2003: Mechanisms for ENSO phase change in a coupled GCM. J. Climate, 16, 1141–1158. Haarsma, R. J., J. F. B. Mitchell, and C. A. Senior, 1993: Tropical disturbances in a GCM. Climate Dyn., 8, 247–257. Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686–5699. ——, M. Zhao, and B. Wyman, 2007: Dynamic radiative–convective equilibria using GCM column physics. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 228–238. Henderson-Sellers, A., and Coauthors, 1998: Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 19–38. Holland, G. J., 1993: Ready reckoner. 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spelling ftingv:oai:www.earth-prints.org:2122/4272 2023-05-15T17:36:09+02:00 Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model. Gualdi, S. Scoccimarro, E. Navarra, A. Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia 2008-10-15 http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4272 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1 en eng Journal of Climate /21 (2008) Aiyyer, A. R., and C. Thorncroft, 2006: Climatology of vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. J. Climate, 19, 2969– 2983. 5226 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 21 Anthes, R. A., R. W. Corell, G. Holland, J. W. Hurrel, M. C. Mac- Cracken, and K. E. Trenberth, 2006: Hurricanes and global warming—Potential linkages and consequences. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 623–628. Behera, S. K., J. J. Luo, S. Masson, P. Delecluse, S. Gualdi, A. Navarra, and T. Yamagata, 2005: Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the East African short rains: A CGCM study. J. Climate, 18, 4514–4530. Bengtsson, L., M. Botzet, and M. Esch, 1995: Hurricane–type vortices in a general–circulation model. Tellus, 47A, 175–196. ——,——, and——, 1996: Will greenhouse gas–induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes? Tellus, 48A, 57–73. ——, K. I. Hodges, M. Esch, N. Keenlyside, L. Kornblueh, J.-J. Luo, and T. Yamagata, 2007: How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? Tellus, 59A, 539–561. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4801, doi:10.1029/ 2001JD000776. Blanke, B., and P. Delecluse, 1993: Low frequency variability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean simulated by a general circulation model with mixed layer physics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 1363– 1388. Broccoli, A. J., and S. Manabe, 1990: Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 1917–1920. Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, and S. E. Zebiak, 2004: Properties of tropical cyclones in atmospheric general circulation models. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Tech. Rep. 04-02, 72 pp. Chan, J. C.-L., 2000: Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960–2972. Chauvin, F., J.-F. Royer, and M. Deque, 2006: Response of hurricane- type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE- Climat at high resolution. Climate Dyn., 27, 377–399. Chia, H. H., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2934–2944. Delworth, T. L., and M. E. Mann, 2000: Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dyn., 16, 661–676. De Maria, M., J. A. Knaff, and B. H. Connell, 2001: A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 219–233. Dutton, J. F., C. J. Poulsen, and J. L. Evans, 2000: The effect of global climate change on the region of tropical convection in CSM1. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3049–3052. Elsner, J. B., and B. Kocher, 2000: Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 129–132. Emanuel, K. A., 1987: The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature, 326, 483–485. ——, 1994: Atmospheric Convection. Oxford University Press, 580 pp. ——, 2003: Tropical cyclones. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 31, 75–104. ——, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686–688. ——, and D. S. Nolan, 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10A.2. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/75463. pdf.] Fichefet, T., and M. A. Morales-Maqueda, 1999: Modelling the influence of snow accumulation and snow–ice formation on the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea-ice cover. Climate Dyn., 15, 251–268. Frank, W. M., 1977: The structure and energetics of the tropical cyclone I. The storm structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 1119– 1135. ——, and G. S. Young, 2007: The interannual variability of tropical cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3587–3598. Gent, P. R., and J. C. McWilliams, 1990: Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 150–155. Goldenberg, S. B., and L. J. Shapiro, 1996: Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño and West African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. J. Climate, 9, 1169–1187. ——, C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and W. M. Gray, 2001: The recent increase in the Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science, 293, 474–479. Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669–700. ——, 1979: Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Royal Meteorological Society, 155– 218. ——, 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30-mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1649–1668. Gualdi, S., A. Navarra, E. Guilyardi, and P. Delecluse, 2003a: Assessment of the tropical Indo-Pacific climate in the SINTEX CGCM. Ann. Geophys., 46, 1–26. ——, E. Guilyardi, A. Navarra, S. Masina, and P. 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Shoreibah, 1982: Concentric eye walls, secondary wind maxima, and the evolution of the hurricane vortex. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 395–411. Xie, P., and P. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539–2558. Yoshimura, J., M. Sigu, and A. Noda, 2006: Influence of greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone frequency. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 405–428. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/4272 doi:10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1 restricted Tropical Cyclone Climate 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate article 2008 ftingv https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1 2022-07-29T06:05:01Z This study investigates the possible changes that greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using scenario climate simulations carried out with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the twentieth century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone–like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation, and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link TC occurrence with large-scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with reduced convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Finally, the action of the TCs remains well confined to the tropical region and the peak of TC number remains equatorward of 20° latitude in both hemispheres, notwithstanding the overall warming of the tropical upper ocean and the expansion poleward of warm SSTs. Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change. European Community project ENSEMBLES, Contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539. Published 5204-5228 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano JCR Journal reserved Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) Pacific Journal of Climate 21 20 5204 5228

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