Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble
To examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (from October to the following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed daily varying s...
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American Meteorological Society
2021
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/15517 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 |
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ftingv:oai:www.earth-prints.org:2122/15517 2023-05-15T14:38:47+02:00 Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble Liang, Yu‐Chiao Frankignoul, Claude Kwon, Young‐Oh Gastineau, Guillaume Manzini, Elisa Danabasoglu, Gokhan Suo, Lingling Yeager, Stephen Gao, Yongqi Attema, Jisk Cherchi, Annalisa Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer V. Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia 2021-10-01 http://hdl.handle.net/2122/15517 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate 20/34 (2021) 0894-8755 http://hdl.handle.net/2122/15517 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 open Arctic Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Climate models 01.01. Atmosphere article 2021 ftingv https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 2022-07-29T06:08:45Z To examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (from October to the following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed daily varying sea ice, sea surface temperature, and radiative forcings prescribed during the 1979–2014 period, together with a parallel set of experiments where Arctic sea ice is substituted by its climatology. The simulations of the former set reproduce the near-surface temperature trends in reanalysis data, with similar amplitude, and their multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM) shows decreasing sea level pressure over much of the polar cap and Eurasia in boreal autumn. The MMEM difference between the two experiments allows isolating the effects of Arctic sea ice loss, which explain a large portion of the Arctic warming trends in the lower troposphere and drive a small but statistically significant weakening of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. The observed interannual covariability between sea ice extent in the Barents–Kara Seas and lagged atmospheric circulation is distinguished from the effects of confounding factors based on multiple regression, and quantitatively compared to the covariability in MMEMs. The interannual sea ice decline followed by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like anomaly found in observations is also seen in the MMEM differences, with consistent spatial structure but much smaller amplitude. This result suggests that the sea ice impacts on trends and interannual atmospheric variability simulated by AGCMs could be underestimated, but caution is needed because internal atmospheric variability may have affected the observed relationship. Published 8419–8443 2A. Fisica dell'alta atmosfera JCR Journal Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) Arctic Journal of Climate 1 64 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) |
op_collection_id |
ftingv |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Climate models 01.01. Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
Arctic Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Climate models 01.01. Atmosphere Liang, Yu‐Chiao Frankignoul, Claude Kwon, Young‐Oh Gastineau, Guillaume Manzini, Elisa Danabasoglu, Gokhan Suo, Lingling Yeager, Stephen Gao, Yongqi Attema, Jisk Cherchi, Annalisa Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer V. Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble |
topic_facet |
Arctic Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Climate models 01.01. Atmosphere |
description |
To examine the atmospheric responses to Arctic sea ice variability in the Northern Hemisphere cold season (from October to the following March), this study uses a coordinated set of large-ensemble experiments of nine atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced with observed daily varying sea ice, sea surface temperature, and radiative forcings prescribed during the 1979–2014 period, together with a parallel set of experiments where Arctic sea ice is substituted by its climatology. The simulations of the former set reproduce the near-surface temperature trends in reanalysis data, with similar amplitude, and their multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM) shows decreasing sea level pressure over much of the polar cap and Eurasia in boreal autumn. The MMEM difference between the two experiments allows isolating the effects of Arctic sea ice loss, which explain a large portion of the Arctic warming trends in the lower troposphere and drive a small but statistically significant weakening of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. The observed interannual covariability between sea ice extent in the Barents–Kara Seas and lagged atmospheric circulation is distinguished from the effects of confounding factors based on multiple regression, and quantitatively compared to the covariability in MMEMs. The interannual sea ice decline followed by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like anomaly found in observations is also seen in the MMEM differences, with consistent spatial structure but much smaller amplitude. This result suggests that the sea ice impacts on trends and interannual atmospheric variability simulated by AGCMs could be underestimated, but caution is needed because internal atmospheric variability may have affected the observed relationship. Published 8419–8443 2A. Fisica dell'alta atmosfera JCR Journal |
author2 |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Liang, Yu‐Chiao Frankignoul, Claude Kwon, Young‐Oh Gastineau, Guillaume Manzini, Elisa Danabasoglu, Gokhan Suo, Lingling Yeager, Stephen Gao, Yongqi Attema, Jisk Cherchi, Annalisa Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer V. Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying |
author_facet |
Liang, Yu‐Chiao Frankignoul, Claude Kwon, Young‐Oh Gastineau, Guillaume Manzini, Elisa Danabasoglu, Gokhan Suo, Lingling Yeager, Stephen Gao, Yongqi Attema, Jisk Cherchi, Annalisa Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer V. Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying |
author_sort |
Liang, Yu‐Chiao |
title |
Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble |
title_short |
Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble |
title_full |
Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble |
title_sort |
impacts of arctic sea ice on cold season atmospheric variability and trends estimated from observations and a multi-model large ensemble |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/15517 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate 20/34 (2021) 0894-8755 http://hdl.handle.net/2122/15517 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 |
op_rights |
open |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0578.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
64 |
_version_ |
1766310811648655360 |