Analysis methodology of functioning and forecasting the development of the regional transport network (on the example of the European and Cisural Arctic)

• Published in: Proceedings of the Komi Science Centre of the Ural Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences
• Main Authors: Kiselenko A., Malaschuk P. A., Sundukov E. Yu., Fomina I. V., Tarabukina N. A., Sheveleva A. A.
• Format: Text
• Language: Russian
• Published: FSBI FIC "Komi Scientific Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences" 2024
• Subjects: Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.19110/1994-5655-2024-4-77-87

The article is devoted to the development of theoretical and methodological approaches to the fundamentals of analyzing the functioning and forecasting of the current and future transport network of the European and Cisural Arctic in modern economic conditions, taking into account: the location of promising sources of freight flows in the territory under consideration, data on the carrying and capacity of the network and its development prospects. Considering the incompleteness of time series of statistical indicators characterizing the operation of the transport network, the study, along with classical methods of forecasting traffic volumes, pays significant attention to scenarios for its development. The paper describes the transport network of the European and Cisural Arctic of the Russian Federation, defines strategic planning, and shows the importance of analyzing the functioning of the transport network of the region. Forecasts of traffic volumes have been obtained, their assessment and scenarios for the development of the transport network have been compiled using a combined forecasting system. A methodology has been developed for analyzing the functioning and forecasting the development of the transport network of the European and Cisural Arctic.