Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales
In spite of the summer monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of an agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts toward improving its prediction and simulation have been limited. Hence, a focused mission mode program Monsoon Mission (MM) was founded in 2012 to spur p...
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ftindianacasci:oai:repository.ias.ac.in:123905 2023-05-15T18:18:40+02:00 Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales Rao, Suryachandra A. Goswami, B. N. Sahai, A. K. Rajagopal, E. N. Mukhopadhyay, P. Rajeevan, M. Nayak, S. Rathore, L. S. Shenoi, S. S. C. Ramesh, K. J. Nanjundiah, R. S. Ravichandran, M. Mitra, A. K. Pai, D. S. Bhowmik, S. K. R. Hazra, A. Mahapatra, S. Saha, S. K. Chaudhari, H. S. Joseph, S. Sreenivas, P. Pokhrel, S. Pillai, P. A. Chattopadhyay, R. Deshpande, M. Krishna, R. P. M. Das, Renu S. Prasad, V. S. Abhilash, S. Panickal, S. Krishnan, R. Kumar, S. Ramu, D. A. Reddy, S. S. Arora, A. Goswami, T. Rai, A. Srivastava, A. Pradhan, M. Tirkey, S. Ganai, M. Mandal, R. Dey, A. Sarkar, S. Malviya, S. Dhakate, A. Salunke, K. Maini, Parvinder 2019 http://repository.ias.ac.in/123905/ https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1 unknown American Meteorological Society Rao, Suryachandra A. Goswami, B. N. Sahai, A. K. Rajagopal, E. N. Mukhopadhyay, P. Rajeevan, M. Nayak, S. Rathore, L. S. Shenoi, S. S. C. Ramesh, K. J. Nanjundiah, R. S. Ravichandran, M. Mitra, A. K. Pai, D. S. Bhowmik, S. K. R. Hazra, A. Mahapatra, S. Saha, S. K. Chaudhari, H. S. Joseph, S. Sreenivas, P. Pokhrel, S. Pillai, P. A. Chattopadhyay, R. Deshpande, M. Krishna, R. P. M. Das, Renu S. Prasad, V. S. Abhilash, S. Panickal, S. Krishnan, R. Kumar, S. Ramu, D. A. Reddy, S. S. Arora, A. Goswami, T. Rai, A. Srivastava, A. Pradhan, M. Tirkey, S. Ganai, M. Mandal, R. Dey, A. Sarkar, S. Malviya, S. Dhakate, A. Salunke, K. Maini, Parvinder (2019) Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (12). pp. 2509-2532. ISSN 0003-0007 QE Geology Article PeerReviewed 2019 ftindianacasci https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1 2021-10-27T07:00:21Z In spite of the summer monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of an agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts toward improving its prediction and simulation have been limited. Hence, a focused mission mode program Monsoon Mission (MM) was founded in 2012 to spur progress in this direction. This article explains the efforts made by the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, in implementing MM to develop a dynamical prediction framework to improve monsoon prediction. Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and the Met Office Unified Model (UM) were chosen as the base models. The efforts in this program have resulted in 1) unparalleled skill of 0.63 for seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon (for the period 1981–2010) in a high-resolution (∼38 km) seasonal prediction system, relative to present-generation seasonal prediction models; 2) extended-range predictions by a CFS-based grand multimodel ensemble (MME) prediction system; and 3) a gain of 2-day lead time from very high-resolution (12.5 km) Global Forecast System (GFS)-based short-range predictions up to 10 days. These prediction skills are on par with other global leading weather and climate centers, and are better in some areas. Several developmental activities like coupled data assimilation, changes in convective parameterization, cloud microphysics schemes, and parameterization of land surface processes (including snow and sea ice) led to the improvements such as reducing the strong model biases in the Indian summer monsoon simulation and elsewhere in the tropics. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Indian Academy of Sciences: Publication of Fellows Indian Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100 12 2509 2532 |
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Indian Academy of Sciences: Publication of Fellows |
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QE Geology |
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QE Geology Rao, Suryachandra A. Goswami, B. N. Sahai, A. K. Rajagopal, E. N. Mukhopadhyay, P. Rajeevan, M. Nayak, S. Rathore, L. S. Shenoi, S. S. C. Ramesh, K. J. Nanjundiah, R. S. Ravichandran, M. Mitra, A. K. Pai, D. S. Bhowmik, S. K. R. Hazra, A. Mahapatra, S. Saha, S. K. Chaudhari, H. S. Joseph, S. Sreenivas, P. Pokhrel, S. Pillai, P. A. Chattopadhyay, R. Deshpande, M. Krishna, R. P. M. Das, Renu S. Prasad, V. S. Abhilash, S. Panickal, S. Krishnan, R. Kumar, S. Ramu, D. A. Reddy, S. S. Arora, A. Goswami, T. Rai, A. Srivastava, A. Pradhan, M. Tirkey, S. Ganai, M. Mandal, R. Dey, A. Sarkar, S. Malviya, S. Dhakate, A. Salunke, K. Maini, Parvinder Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales |
topic_facet |
QE Geology |
description |
In spite of the summer monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of an agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts toward improving its prediction and simulation have been limited. Hence, a focused mission mode program Monsoon Mission (MM) was founded in 2012 to spur progress in this direction. This article explains the efforts made by the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, in implementing MM to develop a dynamical prediction framework to improve monsoon prediction. Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and the Met Office Unified Model (UM) were chosen as the base models. The efforts in this program have resulted in 1) unparalleled skill of 0.63 for seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon (for the period 1981–2010) in a high-resolution (∼38 km) seasonal prediction system, relative to present-generation seasonal prediction models; 2) extended-range predictions by a CFS-based grand multimodel ensemble (MME) prediction system; and 3) a gain of 2-day lead time from very high-resolution (12.5 km) Global Forecast System (GFS)-based short-range predictions up to 10 days. These prediction skills are on par with other global leading weather and climate centers, and are better in some areas. Several developmental activities like coupled data assimilation, changes in convective parameterization, cloud microphysics schemes, and parameterization of land surface processes (including snow and sea ice) led to the improvements such as reducing the strong model biases in the Indian summer monsoon simulation and elsewhere in the tropics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rao, Suryachandra A. Goswami, B. N. Sahai, A. K. Rajagopal, E. N. Mukhopadhyay, P. Rajeevan, M. Nayak, S. Rathore, L. S. Shenoi, S. S. C. Ramesh, K. J. Nanjundiah, R. S. Ravichandran, M. Mitra, A. K. Pai, D. S. Bhowmik, S. K. R. Hazra, A. Mahapatra, S. Saha, S. K. Chaudhari, H. S. Joseph, S. Sreenivas, P. Pokhrel, S. Pillai, P. A. Chattopadhyay, R. Deshpande, M. Krishna, R. P. M. Das, Renu S. Prasad, V. S. Abhilash, S. Panickal, S. Krishnan, R. Kumar, S. Ramu, D. A. Reddy, S. S. Arora, A. Goswami, T. Rai, A. Srivastava, A. Pradhan, M. Tirkey, S. Ganai, M. Mandal, R. Dey, A. Sarkar, S. Malviya, S. Dhakate, A. Salunke, K. Maini, Parvinder |
author_facet |
Rao, Suryachandra A. Goswami, B. N. Sahai, A. K. Rajagopal, E. N. Mukhopadhyay, P. Rajeevan, M. Nayak, S. Rathore, L. S. Shenoi, S. S. C. Ramesh, K. J. Nanjundiah, R. S. Ravichandran, M. Mitra, A. K. Pai, D. S. Bhowmik, S. K. R. Hazra, A. Mahapatra, S. Saha, S. K. Chaudhari, H. S. Joseph, S. Sreenivas, P. Pokhrel, S. Pillai, P. A. Chattopadhyay, R. Deshpande, M. Krishna, R. P. M. Das, Renu S. Prasad, V. S. Abhilash, S. Panickal, S. Krishnan, R. Kumar, S. Ramu, D. A. Reddy, S. S. Arora, A. Goswami, T. Rai, A. Srivastava, A. Pradhan, M. Tirkey, S. Ganai, M. Mandal, R. Dey, A. Sarkar, S. Malviya, S. Dhakate, A. Salunke, K. Maini, Parvinder |
author_sort |
Rao, Suryachandra A. |
title |
Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales |
title_short |
Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales |
title_full |
Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales |
title_fullStr |
Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales |
title_sort |
monsoon mission: a targeted activity to improve monsoon prediction across scales |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://repository.ias.ac.in/123905/ https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1 |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Rao, Suryachandra A. Goswami, B. N. Sahai, A. K. Rajagopal, E. N. Mukhopadhyay, P. Rajeevan, M. Nayak, S. Rathore, L. S. Shenoi, S. S. C. Ramesh, K. J. Nanjundiah, R. S. Ravichandran, M. Mitra, A. K. Pai, D. S. Bhowmik, S. K. R. Hazra, A. Mahapatra, S. Saha, S. K. Chaudhari, H. S. Joseph, S. Sreenivas, P. Pokhrel, S. Pillai, P. A. Chattopadhyay, R. Deshpande, M. Krishna, R. P. M. Das, Renu S. Prasad, V. S. Abhilash, S. Panickal, S. Krishnan, R. Kumar, S. Ramu, D. A. Reddy, S. S. Arora, A. Goswami, T. Rai, A. Srivastava, A. Pradhan, M. Tirkey, S. Ganai, M. Mandal, R. Dey, A. Sarkar, S. Malviya, S. Dhakate, A. Salunke, K. Maini, Parvinder (2019) Monsoon Mission: A Targeted Activity to Improve Monsoon Prediction across Scales Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (12). pp. 2509-2532. ISSN 0003-0007 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1 |
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Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |
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100 |
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12 |
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2509 |
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2532 |
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1766195316292321280 |