Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: Current and Future Predictions of Habitat Suitability and Cover
Climate change is transforming marine ecosystems through the expansion and contraction of species’ ranges. Sea ice loss and warming temperatures are expected to expand habitat availability for macroalgae along long stretches of Arctic coastlines. To better understand the current distribution of kelp...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2838301 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209 |
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ftimr:oai:imr.brage.unit.no:11250/2838301 2023-05-15T14:35:34+02:00 Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: Current and Future Predictions of Habitat Suitability and Cover Goldsmit, Jesica Schlegel, Robert W. Filbee-Dexter, Karen MacGregor, Kathleen A. Johnson, Ladd E. Mundy, Christopher J. Savoie, Amanda M. McKindsey, Christopher W. Howland, Kimberly L. Archambault, Philippe 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2838301 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209 eng eng Frontiers in Marine Science. 2021, 18 . urn:issn:2296-7745 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2838301 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209 cristin:1964626 19 18 Frontiers in Marine Science Peer reviewed Journal article 2021 ftimr https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209 2022-01-26T23:38:54Z Climate change is transforming marine ecosystems through the expansion and contraction of species’ ranges. Sea ice loss and warming temperatures are expected to expand habitat availability for macroalgae along long stretches of Arctic coastlines. To better understand the current distribution of kelp forests in the Eastern Canadian Arctic, kelps were sampled along the coasts for species identifications and percent cover. The sampling effort was supplemented with occurrence records from global biodiversity databases, searches in the literature, and museum records. Environmental information and occurrence records were used to develop ensemble models for predicting habitat suitability and a Random Forest model to predict kelp cover for the dominant kelp species in the region – Agarum clathratum, Alaria esculenta, and Laminariaceae species (Laminaria solidungula and Saccharina latissima). Ice thickness, sea temperature and salinity explained the highest percentage of kelp distribution. Both modeling approaches showed that the current extent of arctic kelps is potentially much greater than the available records suggest. These modeling approaches were projected into the future using predicted environmental data for 2050 and 2100 based on the most extreme emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The models agreed that predicted distribution of kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic is likely to expand to more northern locations under future emissions scenarios, with the exception of the endemic arctic kelp L. solidungula, which is more likely to lose a significant proportion of suitable habitat. However, there were differences among species regarding predicted cover for both current and future projections. Notwithstanding model-specific variation, it is evident that kelps are widespread throughout the area and likely contribute significantly to the functioning of current Arctic ecosystems. Our results emphasize the importance of kelp in Arctic ecosystems and the underestimation of their potential distribution there. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice Institute for Marine Research: Brage IMR Arctic Frontiers in Marine Science 18 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Institute for Marine Research: Brage IMR |
op_collection_id |
ftimr |
language |
English |
description |
Climate change is transforming marine ecosystems through the expansion and contraction of species’ ranges. Sea ice loss and warming temperatures are expected to expand habitat availability for macroalgae along long stretches of Arctic coastlines. To better understand the current distribution of kelp forests in the Eastern Canadian Arctic, kelps were sampled along the coasts for species identifications and percent cover. The sampling effort was supplemented with occurrence records from global biodiversity databases, searches in the literature, and museum records. Environmental information and occurrence records were used to develop ensemble models for predicting habitat suitability and a Random Forest model to predict kelp cover for the dominant kelp species in the region – Agarum clathratum, Alaria esculenta, and Laminariaceae species (Laminaria solidungula and Saccharina latissima). Ice thickness, sea temperature and salinity explained the highest percentage of kelp distribution. Both modeling approaches showed that the current extent of arctic kelps is potentially much greater than the available records suggest. These modeling approaches were projected into the future using predicted environmental data for 2050 and 2100 based on the most extreme emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The models agreed that predicted distribution of kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic is likely to expand to more northern locations under future emissions scenarios, with the exception of the endemic arctic kelp L. solidungula, which is more likely to lose a significant proportion of suitable habitat. However, there were differences among species regarding predicted cover for both current and future projections. Notwithstanding model-specific variation, it is evident that kelps are widespread throughout the area and likely contribute significantly to the functioning of current Arctic ecosystems. Our results emphasize the importance of kelp in Arctic ecosystems and the underestimation of their potential distribution there. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goldsmit, Jesica Schlegel, Robert W. Filbee-Dexter, Karen MacGregor, Kathleen A. Johnson, Ladd E. Mundy, Christopher J. Savoie, Amanda M. McKindsey, Christopher W. Howland, Kimberly L. Archambault, Philippe |
spellingShingle |
Goldsmit, Jesica Schlegel, Robert W. Filbee-Dexter, Karen MacGregor, Kathleen A. Johnson, Ladd E. Mundy, Christopher J. Savoie, Amanda M. McKindsey, Christopher W. Howland, Kimberly L. Archambault, Philippe Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: Current and Future Predictions of Habitat Suitability and Cover |
author_facet |
Goldsmit, Jesica Schlegel, Robert W. Filbee-Dexter, Karen MacGregor, Kathleen A. Johnson, Ladd E. Mundy, Christopher J. Savoie, Amanda M. McKindsey, Christopher W. Howland, Kimberly L. Archambault, Philippe |
author_sort |
Goldsmit, Jesica |
title |
Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: Current and Future Predictions of Habitat Suitability and Cover |
title_short |
Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: Current and Future Predictions of Habitat Suitability and Cover |
title_full |
Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: Current and Future Predictions of Habitat Suitability and Cover |
title_fullStr |
Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: Current and Future Predictions of Habitat Suitability and Cover |
title_full_unstemmed |
Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: Current and Future Predictions of Habitat Suitability and Cover |
title_sort |
kelp in the eastern canadian arctic: current and future predictions of habitat suitability and cover |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2838301 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
19 18 Frontiers in Marine Science |
op_relation |
Frontiers in Marine Science. 2021, 18 . urn:issn:2296-7745 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2838301 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209 cristin:1964626 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
18 |
_version_ |
1766308368838819840 |