Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance
Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide skilful fo...
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ftimr:oai:imr.brage.unit.no:11250/2829739 2023-05-15T14:30:23+02:00 Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Dusterhus, Andre Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2829739 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 eng eng EC/H2020/727890 Norges forskningsråd: 288192 Communications Earth & Environment. 2021, 2 (1), . urn:issn:2662-4435 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2829739 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 cristin:1951651 10 2 Communications Earth & Environment 1 Peer reviewed Journal article 2021 ftimr https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 2021-11-17T23:36:51Z Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance. We develop a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system wherein statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, while also considering different fishing mortalities. Our retrospective forecasts provide estimates of past performance of our models and they suggest differences in the source of prediction skill between the two cod stocks. We forecast the continuation of unfavorable oceanic conditions for the North Sea cod in the coming decade, which would inhibit its recovery at present fishing levels, and a decrease in Northeast Arctic cod stock compared to the recent high levels. North Sea cod stock may not recover in the decade 2020-2030 while Northeast Arctic cod biomass is also predicted to decline but will be better able to recover, according to an integration of statistical fisheries models and climate predictions publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod Institute for Marine Research: Brage IMR Arctic Barents Sea Communications Earth & Environment 2 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Institute for Marine Research: Brage IMR |
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language |
English |
description |
Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance. We develop a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system wherein statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, while also considering different fishing mortalities. Our retrospective forecasts provide estimates of past performance of our models and they suggest differences in the source of prediction skill between the two cod stocks. We forecast the continuation of unfavorable oceanic conditions for the North Sea cod in the coming decade, which would inhibit its recovery at present fishing levels, and a decrease in Northeast Arctic cod stock compared to the recent high levels. North Sea cod stock may not recover in the decade 2020-2030 while Northeast Arctic cod biomass is also predicted to decline but will be better able to recover, according to an integration of statistical fisheries models and climate predictions publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Dusterhus, Andre Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna |
spellingShingle |
Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Dusterhus, Andre Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
author_facet |
Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Dusterhus, Andre Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna |
author_sort |
Koul, Vimal |
title |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_short |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_full |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_fullStr |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_sort |
skilful prediction of cod stocks in the north and barents sea a decade in advance |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2829739 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod |
op_source |
10 2 Communications Earth & Environment 1 |
op_relation |
EC/H2020/727890 Norges forskningsråd: 288192 Communications Earth & Environment. 2021, 2 (1), . urn:issn:2662-4435 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2829739 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 cristin:1951651 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 |
container_title |
Communications Earth & Environment |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766304238623784960 |