Anticipated changes in the Nordic seas marine climate

• Main Authors: Furevik, Tore, Drange, Helge, Sorteberg, Asgeir
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: Havforskningsinstituttet 2002
• Subjects: klimaovervåkning; climate monitoring; Nordøstatlanteren; Northeast Atlantic; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Barents Sea; Bergen; Climate change; Nordic Seas; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/113241

Possible future changes in the Nordic Seas marine climate are here discussed. The wide range of climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predict a global mean temperature increase between 1- 6ºC by the end of this century, with the estimates using the intermediate IPCC B2 scenario being in the range 1.9-3.4ºC. For climate models forced by a 1percent per year CO2 increase only, the so-called CMIP2 integrations, the increase in temperatures is close to 2ºC after CO2 doubling. For the Arctic region, the warming will probably be twice as high. A result is a rapid decline in the sea ice extent simulated by most models. Changes in the Nordic Seas region have been analysed in a CMIP2-integration with the Bergen Climate Model. In this model there is a trend towards more westerly winds, and by 2080 the entire Barents Sea is ice-free for all months of the year, and the Arctic Ocean ice-free during the summer months. There is a 1-2ºC warming of the Nordic Seas and Barents Sea, and a slight increase in the salinity. The Arctic Ocean is freshened, probably due to more ice melting and river runoff from the Eurasian continent. There is no indication of a reduction of the deepwater formation in the Nordic Seas.