Including climate into the assessment of future fish recruitment, using multiple regression models.
Climate variability has generally not been included in the assessment of fish stocks in the Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea. However, in recent years there has been a focus on implementing climate variability in the assessment for several stocks in both areas. A promising approach, using linear multip...
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ftimr:oai:imr.brage.unit.no:11250/100749 2023-05-15T14:30:28+02:00 Including climate into the assessment of future fish recruitment, using multiple regression models. Stiansen, Jan Erik Aglen, Asgeir Bogstad, Bjarte Loeng, Harald Mehl, Sigbjørn Nakken, Odd Ottersen, Geir Svendsen, Einar 2005 123318 bytes application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11250/100749 eng eng ICES ICES CM documents 2005/O:25 This report is not to be quoted without prior consultation with the General Secretary. http://hdl.handle.net/11250/100749 15 s. fish stocks hydrography VDP::Agriculture and fishery disciplines: 900::Fisheries science: 920::Resource biology: 921 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 Working paper 2005 ftimr 2021-09-23T20:15:01Z Climate variability has generally not been included in the assessment of fish stocks in the Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea. However, in recent years there has been a focus on implementing climate variability in the assessment for several stocks in both areas. A promising approach, using linear multiple regression models, has been applied for short time projections of recruitment of Northeast Arctic cod, Norwegian spring spawning herring and Barents Sea capelin. Environmental factors influence the fish throughout their life history. Time lagged climate variables can be used in combination with stock abundance at younger ages to make models with predictive power 1-3 years ahead. The presented models describe 65-85 % of the variance in the recruitment data. The choice of variables in these kinds of models will always be a trade-off between best possible fit, the presences of a time lag and the possibility of updating the regressions/prognosis as close to the assessment as possible. But it is important that there is a plausible cause-and-effect link between the variables. The paper also discusses how this approach can be implemented in present and future assessment work. Report Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod Norwegian Sea Institute for Marine Research: Brage IMR Arctic Barents Sea Norwegian Sea |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institute for Marine Research: Brage IMR |
op_collection_id |
ftimr |
language |
English |
topic |
fish stocks hydrography VDP::Agriculture and fishery disciplines: 900::Fisheries science: 920::Resource biology: 921 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 |
spellingShingle |
fish stocks hydrography VDP::Agriculture and fishery disciplines: 900::Fisheries science: 920::Resource biology: 921 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 Stiansen, Jan Erik Aglen, Asgeir Bogstad, Bjarte Loeng, Harald Mehl, Sigbjørn Nakken, Odd Ottersen, Geir Svendsen, Einar Including climate into the assessment of future fish recruitment, using multiple regression models. |
topic_facet |
fish stocks hydrography VDP::Agriculture and fishery disciplines: 900::Fisheries science: 920::Resource biology: 921 VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 |
description |
Climate variability has generally not been included in the assessment of fish stocks in the Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea. However, in recent years there has been a focus on implementing climate variability in the assessment for several stocks in both areas. A promising approach, using linear multiple regression models, has been applied for short time projections of recruitment of Northeast Arctic cod, Norwegian spring spawning herring and Barents Sea capelin. Environmental factors influence the fish throughout their life history. Time lagged climate variables can be used in combination with stock abundance at younger ages to make models with predictive power 1-3 years ahead. The presented models describe 65-85 % of the variance in the recruitment data. The choice of variables in these kinds of models will always be a trade-off between best possible fit, the presences of a time lag and the possibility of updating the regressions/prognosis as close to the assessment as possible. But it is important that there is a plausible cause-and-effect link between the variables. The paper also discusses how this approach can be implemented in present and future assessment work. |
format |
Report |
author |
Stiansen, Jan Erik Aglen, Asgeir Bogstad, Bjarte Loeng, Harald Mehl, Sigbjørn Nakken, Odd Ottersen, Geir Svendsen, Einar |
author_facet |
Stiansen, Jan Erik Aglen, Asgeir Bogstad, Bjarte Loeng, Harald Mehl, Sigbjørn Nakken, Odd Ottersen, Geir Svendsen, Einar |
author_sort |
Stiansen, Jan Erik |
title |
Including climate into the assessment of future fish recruitment, using multiple regression models. |
title_short |
Including climate into the assessment of future fish recruitment, using multiple regression models. |
title_full |
Including climate into the assessment of future fish recruitment, using multiple regression models. |
title_fullStr |
Including climate into the assessment of future fish recruitment, using multiple regression models. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Including climate into the assessment of future fish recruitment, using multiple regression models. |
title_sort |
including climate into the assessment of future fish recruitment, using multiple regression models. |
publisher |
ICES |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/100749 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Norwegian Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Norwegian Sea |
genre |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod Norwegian Sea |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod Norwegian Sea |
op_source |
15 s. |
op_relation |
ICES CM documents 2005/O:25 This report is not to be quoted without prior consultation with the General Secretary. http://hdl.handle.net/11250/100749 |
_version_ |
1766304311802855424 |