Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. applications

• Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
• Main Authors: Koutsoyiannis, D, Onof, C, Christofidis, A, Kundzewicz, ZW
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: The Royal Society 2022
• Subjects: Science & Technology; Multidisciplinary Sciences; Science & Technology - Other Topics; causality; causal systems; stochastics; geophysics; hydrology; climate; VOSTOK ICE CORE; CYCLE; CO2; 01 Mathematical Sciences; 02 Physical Sciences; 09 Engineering; ice core
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/98568; https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2021.0836

In a companion paper, we develop the theoretical background of a stochastic approach to causality with the objective of formulating necessary conditions that are operationally useful in identifying or falsifying causality claims. Starting from the idea of stochastic causal systems, the approach extends it to the more general concept of hen-or-egg causality, which includes as special cases the classic causal, and the potentially causal and anti-causal systems. The framework developed is applicable to large-scale open systems, which are neither controllable nor repeatable. In this paper, we illustrate and showcase the proposed framework in a number of case studies. Some of them are controlled synthetic examples and are conducted as a proof of applicability of the theoretical concept, to test the methodology with a priori known system properties. Others are real-world studies on interesting scientific problems in geophysics, and in particular hydrology and climatology.