An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size
There are simple conceptual models of tropical cyclone intensification and potential intensity. However, such a framework has been lacking to describe the evolution of the outer circulation. An analytic growth model of the tropical cyclone outer size is derived from the angular momentum equation. Th...
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ftimperialcol:oai:spiral.imperial.ac.uk:10044/1/97477 2023-05-15T17:34:26+02:00 An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size Wang, S Toumi, R Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) 2022-05-13 http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/97477 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00270-6 unknown Nature Research npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2397-3722 http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/97477 doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00270-6 NE/V017756/1 & LDR01000 © The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Journal Article 2022 ftimperialcol https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00270-6 2022-06-16T22:41:09Z There are simple conceptual models of tropical cyclone intensification and potential intensity. However, such a framework has been lacking to describe the evolution of the outer circulation. An analytic growth model of the tropical cyclone outer size is derived from the angular momentum equation. The growth model fits a full-physics idealized tropical cyclone simulation. The lifecycle composite of the best-track outer size growth shows a strong super-linear nature, which supports an exponential growth as predicted by the growth model. The climatology of outer size growth measured by the radius of gale-force wind in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific during the period 2004–2017, can be understood in terms of four growth factors of the model: the initial size, the growth duration, the mean growth latitude, and the mean top-of-boundary-layer effective local inflow angle. All four variables are significantly different between the two basins. The observed lifetime maximum size follows a lognormal distribution, which is in line with the law of the proportionate effect of this exponential growth model. The growth model fits the observed outer size well in global basins. The time constant of the exponential size growth is approximately equal to the product of the Coriolis parameter and the mean effective inflow angle above the boundary layer. Further sensitivity experiments with the growth model suggest that the interannual variability of the global lifetime maximum size is largely driven by the variation of growth duration. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Imperial College London: Spiral Pacific npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5 1 |
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Imperial College London: Spiral |
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There are simple conceptual models of tropical cyclone intensification and potential intensity. However, such a framework has been lacking to describe the evolution of the outer circulation. An analytic growth model of the tropical cyclone outer size is derived from the angular momentum equation. The growth model fits a full-physics idealized tropical cyclone simulation. The lifecycle composite of the best-track outer size growth shows a strong super-linear nature, which supports an exponential growth as predicted by the growth model. The climatology of outer size growth measured by the radius of gale-force wind in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific during the period 2004–2017, can be understood in terms of four growth factors of the model: the initial size, the growth duration, the mean growth latitude, and the mean top-of-boundary-layer effective local inflow angle. All four variables are significantly different between the two basins. The observed lifetime maximum size follows a lognormal distribution, which is in line with the law of the proportionate effect of this exponential growth model. The growth model fits the observed outer size well in global basins. The time constant of the exponential size growth is approximately equal to the product of the Coriolis parameter and the mean effective inflow angle above the boundary layer. Further sensitivity experiments with the growth model suggest that the interannual variability of the global lifetime maximum size is largely driven by the variation of growth duration. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, S Toumi, R |
spellingShingle |
Wang, S Toumi, R An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size |
author_facet |
Wang, S Toumi, R |
author_sort |
Wang, S |
title |
An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size |
title_short |
An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size |
title_full |
An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size |
title_fullStr |
An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size |
title_full_unstemmed |
An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size |
title_sort |
analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size |
publisher |
Nature Research |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/97477 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00270-6 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2397-3722 http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/97477 doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00270-6 NE/V017756/1 & LDR01000 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00270-6 |
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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
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5 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766133275415281664 |