The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: Past, present and future
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleo‐environmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past, and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained A...
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ftimperialcol:oai:spiral.imperial.ac.uk:10044/1/82048 2023-05-15T13:53:11+02:00 The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: Past, present and future Noble, TL Rohling, EJ Aitken, ARA Bostock, HC Chase, Z Gomez, N Jong, LM King, MA Mackintosh, AN McCormack, FS McKay, RM Menviel, L Phipps, SJ Weber, ME Fogwill, CJ Gayen, B Golledge, NR Gwyther, DE Hogg, AMC Martos, YM Pena‐Molino, B Roberts, J Flierdt, T Williams, T Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) 2020-08-11 http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/82048 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019rg000663 en eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) Reviews of Geophysics 8755-1209 http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/82048 doi:10.1029/2019rg000663 NE/L004607/1 NE/R018219/1 ©2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 89 1 Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 02 Physical Sciences 04 Earth Sciences 09 Engineering Journal Article 2020 ftimperialcol https://doi.org/10.1029/2019rg000663 2020-12-03T23:38:24Z The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleo‐environmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past, and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained Antarctic ice mass loss into the future. Modern observations by contrast suggest that the AIS has only just started to respond to climate change in recent decades. The maximum projected sea level contribution from Antarctica to 2100 has increased significantly since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, although estimates continue to evolve with new observational and theoretical advances. This review brings together recent literature highlighting the progress made on the known processes and feedbacks that influence the stability of the AIS. Reducing the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the future sea‐level response to AIS change requires a multi‐disciplinary approach that integrates knowledge of the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems, and across timescales of days to millennia. We start by reviewing the processes affecting AIS mass change, from atmospheric and oceanic processes acting on short timescales (days‐decades), through to ice processes acting on intermediate timescales (decades‐centuries) and the response to solid Earth interactions over longer timescales (decades‐millennia). We then review the evidence of AIS changes from the Pliocene to the present, and consider the projections of global sea‐level rise, and their consequences. We highlight priority research areas required to improve our understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing AIS change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Imperial College London: Spiral Antarctic The Antarctic Reviews of Geophysics 58 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Imperial College London: Spiral |
op_collection_id |
ftimperialcol |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 02 Physical Sciences 04 Earth Sciences 09 Engineering |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 02 Physical Sciences 04 Earth Sciences 09 Engineering Noble, TL Rohling, EJ Aitken, ARA Bostock, HC Chase, Z Gomez, N Jong, LM King, MA Mackintosh, AN McCormack, FS McKay, RM Menviel, L Phipps, SJ Weber, ME Fogwill, CJ Gayen, B Golledge, NR Gwyther, DE Hogg, AMC Martos, YM Pena‐Molino, B Roberts, J Flierdt, T Williams, T The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: Past, present and future |
topic_facet |
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences 02 Physical Sciences 04 Earth Sciences 09 Engineering |
description |
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleo‐environmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past, and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained Antarctic ice mass loss into the future. Modern observations by contrast suggest that the AIS has only just started to respond to climate change in recent decades. The maximum projected sea level contribution from Antarctica to 2100 has increased significantly since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, although estimates continue to evolve with new observational and theoretical advances. This review brings together recent literature highlighting the progress made on the known processes and feedbacks that influence the stability of the AIS. Reducing the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the future sea‐level response to AIS change requires a multi‐disciplinary approach that integrates knowledge of the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems, and across timescales of days to millennia. We start by reviewing the processes affecting AIS mass change, from atmospheric and oceanic processes acting on short timescales (days‐decades), through to ice processes acting on intermediate timescales (decades‐centuries) and the response to solid Earth interactions over longer timescales (decades‐millennia). We then review the evidence of AIS changes from the Pliocene to the present, and consider the projections of global sea‐level rise, and their consequences. We highlight priority research areas required to improve our understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing AIS change. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Noble, TL Rohling, EJ Aitken, ARA Bostock, HC Chase, Z Gomez, N Jong, LM King, MA Mackintosh, AN McCormack, FS McKay, RM Menviel, L Phipps, SJ Weber, ME Fogwill, CJ Gayen, B Golledge, NR Gwyther, DE Hogg, AMC Martos, YM Pena‐Molino, B Roberts, J Flierdt, T Williams, T |
author_facet |
Noble, TL Rohling, EJ Aitken, ARA Bostock, HC Chase, Z Gomez, N Jong, LM King, MA Mackintosh, AN McCormack, FS McKay, RM Menviel, L Phipps, SJ Weber, ME Fogwill, CJ Gayen, B Golledge, NR Gwyther, DE Hogg, AMC Martos, YM Pena‐Molino, B Roberts, J Flierdt, T Williams, T |
author_sort |
Noble, TL |
title |
The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: Past, present and future |
title_short |
The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: Past, present and future |
title_full |
The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: Past, present and future |
title_fullStr |
The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: Past, present and future |
title_full_unstemmed |
The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to a changing climate: Past, present and future |
title_sort |
sensitivity of the antarctic ice sheet to a changing climate: past, present and future |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/82048 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019rg000663 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_source |
89 1 |
op_relation |
Reviews of Geophysics 8755-1209 http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/82048 doi:10.1029/2019rg000663 NE/L004607/1 NE/R018219/1 |
op_rights |
©2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019rg000663 |
container_title |
Reviews of Geophysics |
container_volume |
58 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1766258163694174208 |