Arctic amplification response to individual climate drivers

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short‐lived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influen...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Main Authors: Stjern, CW, Lund, MT, Samset, BH, Myhre, G, Forster, PM, Andrews, T, Boucher, O, Faluvegi, G, Flaeschner, D, Iversen, T, Kasoar, M, Kharin, V, Kirkevag, A, Lamarque, J-F, Olivie, D, Richardson, T, Sand, M, Shawki, D, Shindell, D, Smith, CJ, Takemura, T, Voulgarakis, A
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union 2019
Subjects:
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Arctic amplification
greenhouse gases
aerosols
climate drivers
climate change
SEA-ICE LOSS
POLAR AMPLIFICATION
VERTICAL STRUCTURE
BLACK CARBON
MULTIMODEL ASSESSMENT
ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
TEMPERATURE
AEROSOL
PRECIPITATION
0401 Atmospheric Sciences
0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
Arctic
black carbon
Climate change
Sea ice
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79953
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029726
Description
Summary:The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short‐lived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influence of each climate driver on the Arctic. In the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project, 10 global climate models perturbed five different climate drivers separately (CO2, CH4, the solar constant, black carbon, and SO4). We show that the annual mean Arctic amplification (defined as the ratio between Arctic and the global mean temperature change) at the surface is similar between climate drivers, ranging from 1.9 (± an intermodel standard deviation of 0.4) for the solar to 2.3 (±0.6) for the SO4 perturbations, with minimum amplification in the summer for all drivers. The vertical and seasonal temperature response patterns indicate that the Arctic is warmed through similar mechanisms for all climate drivers except black carbon. For all drivers, the precipitation change per degree global temperature change is positive in the Arctic, with a seasonality following that of the Arctic amplification. We find indications that SO4 perturbations produce a slightly stronger precipitation response than the other drivers, particularly compared to CO2.

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