Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal
The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we present an overview of science and policy aspects related to this goal and analyse the impli...
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ftimperialcol:oai:spiral.imperial.ac.uk:10044/1/78081 2023-05-15T14:01:35+02:00 Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal Schleussner, C-F Rogelj, J Schaeffer, M Lissner, T Licker, R Fischer, EM Knutti, R Levermann, A Frieler, K Hare, W 2016-07-05 http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/78081 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3096 English eng Nature Research Nature Climate Change 1758-678X http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/78081 doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3096 © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. 835 827 Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Environmental Studies Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology 1.5 DEGREES-C CLIMATE-CHANGE ICE-SHEET CO2 REMOVAL PINE ISLAND IMPACTS 1.5-DEGREES-C PRECIPITATION COLLAPSE THWAITES SEA-LEVEL RISE NEGATIVE EMISSIONS WEST ANTARCTICA AIR-POLLUTION CORAL-REEFS 0401 Atmospheric Sciences 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience 0502 Environmental Science and Management Journal Article 2016 ftimperialcol https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3096 2020-04-23T22:38:13Z The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we present an overview of science and policy aspects related to this goal and analyse the implications for mitigation pathways. We show examples of discernible differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming. At the same time, most available low emission scenarios at least temporarily exceed the 1.5 °C limit before 2100. The legacy of temperature overshoots and the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, or below, thus become central elements of a post-Paris science agenda. The near-term mitigation targets set by countries for the 2020–2030 period are insufficient to secure the achievement of the temperature goal. An increase in mitigation ambition for this period will determine the Agreement's effectiveness in achieving its temperature goal. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island West Antarctica Imperial College London: Spiral West Antarctica Nature Climate Change 6 9 827 835 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Imperial College London: Spiral |
op_collection_id |
ftimperialcol |
language |
English |
topic |
Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Environmental Studies Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology 1.5 DEGREES-C CLIMATE-CHANGE ICE-SHEET CO2 REMOVAL PINE ISLAND IMPACTS 1.5-DEGREES-C PRECIPITATION COLLAPSE THWAITES SEA-LEVEL RISE NEGATIVE EMISSIONS WEST ANTARCTICA AIR-POLLUTION CORAL-REEFS 0401 Atmospheric Sciences 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience 0502 Environmental Science and Management |
spellingShingle |
Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Environmental Studies Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology 1.5 DEGREES-C CLIMATE-CHANGE ICE-SHEET CO2 REMOVAL PINE ISLAND IMPACTS 1.5-DEGREES-C PRECIPITATION COLLAPSE THWAITES SEA-LEVEL RISE NEGATIVE EMISSIONS WEST ANTARCTICA AIR-POLLUTION CORAL-REEFS 0401 Atmospheric Sciences 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience 0502 Environmental Science and Management Schleussner, C-F Rogelj, J Schaeffer, M Lissner, T Licker, R Fischer, EM Knutti, R Levermann, A Frieler, K Hare, W Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal |
topic_facet |
Science & Technology Life Sciences & Biomedicine Physical Sciences Environmental Sciences Environmental Studies Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences & Ecology 1.5 DEGREES-C CLIMATE-CHANGE ICE-SHEET CO2 REMOVAL PINE ISLAND IMPACTS 1.5-DEGREES-C PRECIPITATION COLLAPSE THWAITES SEA-LEVEL RISE NEGATIVE EMISSIONS WEST ANTARCTICA AIR-POLLUTION CORAL-REEFS 0401 Atmospheric Sciences 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience 0502 Environmental Science and Management |
description |
The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we present an overview of science and policy aspects related to this goal and analyse the implications for mitigation pathways. We show examples of discernible differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming. At the same time, most available low emission scenarios at least temporarily exceed the 1.5 °C limit before 2100. The legacy of temperature overshoots and the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, or below, thus become central elements of a post-Paris science agenda. The near-term mitigation targets set by countries for the 2020–2030 period are insufficient to secure the achievement of the temperature goal. An increase in mitigation ambition for this period will determine the Agreement's effectiveness in achieving its temperature goal. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schleussner, C-F Rogelj, J Schaeffer, M Lissner, T Licker, R Fischer, EM Knutti, R Levermann, A Frieler, K Hare, W |
author_facet |
Schleussner, C-F Rogelj, J Schaeffer, M Lissner, T Licker, R Fischer, EM Knutti, R Levermann, A Frieler, K Hare, W |
author_sort |
Schleussner, C-F |
title |
Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal |
title_short |
Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal |
title_full |
Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal |
title_fullStr |
Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal |
title_full_unstemmed |
Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal |
title_sort |
science and policy characteristics of the paris agreement temperature goal |
publisher |
Nature Research |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/78081 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3096 |
geographic |
West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island West Antarctica |
op_source |
835 827 |
op_relation |
Nature Climate Change 1758-678X http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/78081 doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3096 |
op_rights |
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3096 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
827 |
op_container_end_page |
835 |
_version_ |
1766271516772663296 |