Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols
Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, how...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
2018
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/62918 http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000435406800004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018 |
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ftimperialcol:oai:spiral.imperial.ac.uk:10044/1/62918 2023-05-15T15:15:56+02:00 Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols Tang, T Shindell, D Samset, BH Boucher, O Forster, PM Hodnebrog, O Myhre, G Sillmann, J Voulgarakis, A Andrews, T Faluvegi, G Flaschner, D Iversen, T Kasoar, M Kharin, V Kirkevag, A Lamarque, J-F Olivie, D Richardson, T Stjern, CW Takemura, T 2018-06-05 http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/62918 http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000435406800004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018 English eng COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS © 2018 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). CC-BY 8452 8439 Science & Technology Physical Sciences Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences EARTH SYSTEM MODEL BLACK CARBON AEROSOLS CLIMATE RESPONSE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE VARIABILITY SIMULATION TRENDS FUTURE CMIP5 PROJECTIONS 0401 Atmospheric Sciences 0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences Journal Article 2018 ftimperialcol https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018 2018-10-11T22:38:16Z Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs). Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC) forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP) pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901–2010, roughly one-third (31±17%) of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol–cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and the economy in the Mediterranean region. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic black carbon North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Imperial College London: Spiral Arctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18 11 8439 8452 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Imperial College London: Spiral |
op_collection_id |
ftimperialcol |
language |
English |
topic |
Science & Technology Physical Sciences Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences EARTH SYSTEM MODEL BLACK CARBON AEROSOLS CLIMATE RESPONSE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE VARIABILITY SIMULATION TRENDS FUTURE CMIP5 PROJECTIONS 0401 Atmospheric Sciences 0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Science & Technology Physical Sciences Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences EARTH SYSTEM MODEL BLACK CARBON AEROSOLS CLIMATE RESPONSE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE VARIABILITY SIMULATION TRENDS FUTURE CMIP5 PROJECTIONS 0401 Atmospheric Sciences 0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences Tang, T Shindell, D Samset, BH Boucher, O Forster, PM Hodnebrog, O Myhre, G Sillmann, J Voulgarakis, A Andrews, T Faluvegi, G Flaschner, D Iversen, T Kasoar, M Kharin, V Kirkevag, A Lamarque, J-F Olivie, D Richardson, T Stjern, CW Takemura, T Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols |
topic_facet |
Science & Technology Physical Sciences Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences EARTH SYSTEM MODEL BLACK CARBON AEROSOLS CLIMATE RESPONSE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE VARIABILITY SIMULATION TRENDS FUTURE CMIP5 PROJECTIONS 0401 Atmospheric Sciences 0201 Astronomical And Space Sciences |
description |
Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs). Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC) forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP) pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901–2010, roughly one-third (31±17%) of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol–cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and the economy in the Mediterranean region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tang, T Shindell, D Samset, BH Boucher, O Forster, PM Hodnebrog, O Myhre, G Sillmann, J Voulgarakis, A Andrews, T Faluvegi, G Flaschner, D Iversen, T Kasoar, M Kharin, V Kirkevag, A Lamarque, J-F Olivie, D Richardson, T Stjern, CW Takemura, T |
author_facet |
Tang, T Shindell, D Samset, BH Boucher, O Forster, PM Hodnebrog, O Myhre, G Sillmann, J Voulgarakis, A Andrews, T Faluvegi, G Flaschner, D Iversen, T Kasoar, M Kharin, V Kirkevag, A Lamarque, J-F Olivie, D Richardson, T Stjern, CW Takemura, T |
author_sort |
Tang, T |
title |
Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols |
title_short |
Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols |
title_full |
Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols |
title_fullStr |
Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols |
title_sort |
dynamical response of mediterranean precipitation to greenhouse gases and aerosols |
publisher |
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/62918 http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000435406800004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic black carbon North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic black carbon North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
8452 8439 |
op_relation |
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
op_rights |
© 2018 Author(s). This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
8439 |
op_container_end_page |
8452 |
_version_ |
1766346253597147136 |