An Agent-Based Modeling of Permafrost Melting and Virus Exposure due to Climate Change

• Main Author: Mozid, Nishat Ara
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: ISU ReD: Research and eData 2024
• Subjects: Agent-based Modeling; Anthrax; NetLogo; Permafrost; Sensitivity Analysis; Climate change; Ice; permafrost
• Online Access: https://ir.library.illinoisstate.edu/etd/1990; https://doi.org/10.30707/ETD2024.20240827063557588245.999973; https://ir.library.illinoisstate.edu/context/etd/article/2991/viewcontent/Mozid_ilstu_0092N_12710.pdf

Climate change has affected human life and natural system significantly. Particularly, there is specific evidence of change in the Arctic region for climate warming. One of the consequences of climate change is the process of permafrost degradation and thawing rate of active layer. Permafrost is defined as frozen grounds that exists at a temperature of or below 0℃ for at least two consecutive years, consists of ice and novel pathogens which are frozen for a long time. Anthrax may cause a serious threat for local environment and livestock due to permafrost melting. The study introduces an agent-based modeling of permafrost melting and virus exposure. Our methodology includes gathering melting temperatures for permafrost and recent cases of anthrax emergence from thawing permafrost. The model will help us understand the dynamics of virus spread among animal populations and predict future outbreak patterns under different climate scenarios.