Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to undesirable effects on oceans in coming centuries. Drawing on recommendations published by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, levels of unacceptable global marine change (so-called guardrails) are defined in terms of global mean te...
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ftiiasalaxendare:oai:pure.iiasa.ac.at:9864 2023-05-15T16:40:40+02:00 Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts Kvale, K. Zickfeld, K. Bruckner, T. Meissner, K.J. Tanaka, K. Weaver, A.J. 2012-07 text http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9864/ http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9864/1/wcas-d-11-00030%252E1.pdf en eng American Meteorological Society http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9864/1/wcas-d-11-00030%252E1.pdf Kvale, K., Zickfeld, K., Bruckner, T., Meissner, K.J., Tanaka, K. <http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/1608.html>, & Weaver, A.J. (2012). Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts. Weather, Climate, and Society 4 (3) 212-229. 10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00030.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00030.1>. cc_by CC-BY Article PeerReviewed 2012 ftiiasalaxendare 2022-04-15T12:33:58Z Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to undesirable effects on oceans in coming centuries. Drawing on recommendations published by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, levels of unacceptable global marine change (so-called guardrails) are defined in terms of global mean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. A global-mean climate model [the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model (ACC2)] is coupled with an economic module [taken from the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy Model (DICE)] to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to derive CO2 emission pathways that both minimize abatement costs and are compatible with these guardrails. Additionally, the .tolerable windows approach. is used to calculate a range of CO2 emissions paths that obey the guardrails as well as a restriction on mitigation rate. Prospects of meeting the global mean temperature change guardrail (2 and 0.2 degrees C per decade relative to preindustrial) depend strongly on assumed values for climate sensitivity: at climate sensitivities >3 degrees C the guardrail cannot be attained under any CO2 emissions reduction strategy without mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The ocean acidification guardrail (0.2 unit pH decline relative to preindustrial) is less restrictive than the absolute temperature guardrail at climate sensitivities >2.5 degrees C but becomes more constraining at lower climate sensitivities. The sea level rise and rate of rise guardrails (1m and 5cm per decade) are substantially less stringent for ice sheet sensitivities derived in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, but they may already be committed to violation if ice sheet sensitivities consistent with semiempirical sea level rise projections are assumed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Ocean acidification IIASA DARE (Data Repository of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) |
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Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to undesirable effects on oceans in coming centuries. Drawing on recommendations published by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, levels of unacceptable global marine change (so-called guardrails) are defined in terms of global mean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. A global-mean climate model [the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model (ACC2)] is coupled with an economic module [taken from the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy Model (DICE)] to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to derive CO2 emission pathways that both minimize abatement costs and are compatible with these guardrails. Additionally, the .tolerable windows approach. is used to calculate a range of CO2 emissions paths that obey the guardrails as well as a restriction on mitigation rate. Prospects of meeting the global mean temperature change guardrail (2 and 0.2 degrees C per decade relative to preindustrial) depend strongly on assumed values for climate sensitivity: at climate sensitivities >3 degrees C the guardrail cannot be attained under any CO2 emissions reduction strategy without mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The ocean acidification guardrail (0.2 unit pH decline relative to preindustrial) is less restrictive than the absolute temperature guardrail at climate sensitivities >2.5 degrees C but becomes more constraining at lower climate sensitivities. The sea level rise and rate of rise guardrails (1m and 5cm per decade) are substantially less stringent for ice sheet sensitivities derived in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, but they may already be committed to violation if ice sheet sensitivities consistent with semiempirical sea level rise projections are assumed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kvale, K. Zickfeld, K. Bruckner, T. Meissner, K.J. Tanaka, K. Weaver, A.J. |
spellingShingle |
Kvale, K. Zickfeld, K. Bruckner, T. Meissner, K.J. Tanaka, K. Weaver, A.J. Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts |
author_facet |
Kvale, K. Zickfeld, K. Bruckner, T. Meissner, K.J. Tanaka, K. Weaver, A.J. |
author_sort |
Kvale, K. |
title |
Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts |
title_short |
Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts |
title_full |
Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts |
title_fullStr |
Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts |
title_sort |
carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9864/ http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9864/1/wcas-d-11-00030%252E1.pdf |
genre |
Ice Sheet Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/9864/1/wcas-d-11-00030%252E1.pdf Kvale, K., Zickfeld, K., Bruckner, T., Meissner, K.J., Tanaka, K. <http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/1608.html>, & Weaver, A.J. (2012). Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts. Weather, Climate, and Society 4 (3) 212-229. 10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00030.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00030.1>. |
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CC-BY |
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1766031072184762368 |