Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia
Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model...
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ftiiasalaxendare:oai:pure.iiasa.ac.at:17866 2023-05-15T16:11:54+02:00 Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia Fewster, R.E. Morris, P.J. Ivanovic, R.F. Swindles, G.T. Peregon, A.M. Smith, C. 2022-03-14 text http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17866/ http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17866/1/NCLIM-21061069B_Manuscript_untracked_v1.2.pdf en eng Nature Publishing Group http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17866/1/NCLIM-21061069B_Manuscript_untracked_v1.2.pdf Fewster, R.E., Morris, P.J., Ivanovic, R.F., Swindles, G.T., Peregon, A.M., & Smith, C. <http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/3162.html> orcid:0000-0003-0599-4633 (2022). Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7>. arr Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftiiasalaxendare 2022-06-19T23:23:09Z Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0–39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socio-economic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw. Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandia permafrost Siberia IIASA DARE (Data Repository of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) |
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IIASA DARE (Data Repository of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) |
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ftiiasalaxendare |
language |
English |
description |
Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0–39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socio-economic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fewster, R.E. Morris, P.J. Ivanovic, R.F. Swindles, G.T. Peregon, A.M. Smith, C. |
spellingShingle |
Fewster, R.E. Morris, P.J. Ivanovic, R.F. Swindles, G.T. Peregon, A.M. Smith, C. Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
author_facet |
Fewster, R.E. Morris, P.J. Ivanovic, R.F. Swindles, G.T. Peregon, A.M. Smith, C. |
author_sort |
Fewster, R.E. |
title |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_short |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_full |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_fullStr |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_sort |
imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in europe and western siberia |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17866/ http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17866/1/NCLIM-21061069B_Manuscript_untracked_v1.2.pdf |
genre |
Fennoscandia permafrost Siberia |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia permafrost Siberia |
op_relation |
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17866/1/NCLIM-21061069B_Manuscript_untracked_v1.2.pdf Fewster, R.E., Morris, P.J., Ivanovic, R.F., Swindles, G.T., Peregon, A.M., & Smith, C. <http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/3162.html> orcid:0000-0003-0599-4633 (2022). Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7>. |
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1765997109297807360 |