Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we qu...
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ftiiasalaxendare:oai:pure.iiasa.ac.at:15134 2023-05-15T13:41:18+02:00 Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C.F. 2018-02-20 text http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/ http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/1/s41467-018-02985-8.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/2/41467_2018_2985_MOESM1_ESM.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/9/41467_2018_2985_MOESM2_ESM.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/10/41467_2018_2985_MOESM3_ESM.docx en eng http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/1/s41467-018-02985-8.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/2/41467_2018_2985_MOESM1_ESM.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/9/41467_2018_2985_MOESM2_ESM.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/10/41467_2018_2985_MOESM3_ESM.docx Mengel, M., Nauels, A., Rogelj, J. <http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/254.html> orcid:0000-0003-2056-9061 , & Schleussner, C.F. (2018). Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action. Nature Communications 9 (1) 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8>. cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY Article PeerReviewed info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2018 ftiiasalaxendare 2022-04-15T12:38:10Z Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet IIASA DARE (Data Repository of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) Antarctic |
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Open Polar |
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IIASA DARE (Data Repository of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) |
op_collection_id |
ftiiasalaxendare |
language |
English |
description |
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C.F. |
spellingShingle |
Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C.F. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
author_facet |
Mengel, M. Nauels, A. Rogelj, J. Schleussner, C.F. |
author_sort |
Mengel, M. |
title |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_short |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_full |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_fullStr |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_full_unstemmed |
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
title_sort |
committed sea-level rise under the paris agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/ http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/1/s41467-018-02985-8.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/2/41467_2018_2985_MOESM1_ESM.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/9/41467_2018_2985_MOESM2_ESM.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/10/41467_2018_2985_MOESM3_ESM.docx |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/1/s41467-018-02985-8.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/2/41467_2018_2985_MOESM1_ESM.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/9/41467_2018_2985_MOESM2_ESM.pdf http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15134/10/41467_2018_2985_MOESM3_ESM.docx Mengel, M., Nauels, A., Rogelj, J. <http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/254.html> orcid:0000-0003-2056-9061 , & Schleussner, C.F. (2018). Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action. Nature Communications 9 (1) 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8>. |
op_rights |
cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
_version_ |
1766148684006817792 |