Future of Russian forests: a need of transformative adaptation?

• Main Authors: Shvidenko, A., Shchepashchenko, D., Kraxner, F., Obersteiner, M.
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2014
• Subjects: permafrost
• Online Access: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/11173/; http://iufro.org/download/file/16684/4139/iwc14-abstracts_pdf/

Russia expects the most dramatic climate change over the globe (increase of the annual average temperature from +6 to +11 degrees C compared to the average under global warming of +3.5.4.0 degrees C, and substantial increase of climate's aridity and extreme events). It would generate many risks for Russian forests, such as heat and water stress, alteration of fire regimes, and pandemic outbreaks of dangerous insects. Specific problems will be generated by permafrost's thawing and destructive industrial development of northern regions. Very likely, a major part of Russian forests will become a tipping element. In the presentation, we analyze climatic predictions for the territory including impacts on composition, productivity, vitality and surviving of forests; regional feedbacks of forest ecosystems; and relevant strategies of forests - adaptation to climate change. Modeling predictions show that implementation of adaptive forests management (including genetic efforts, activities addressed to increase permafrost protection forest services, special preparation of structure of forest landscapes) could substantially mitigate the expected risks. We discuss specific features of transformative adaptation. As long as practically all forests in Russia are in the state property, there is a legislative and institutional background for introduction of adaptive forest management in Russia. However, a current decline of forest governance in Russia hinders transition to sustainable forest management there.