Section 7: Forest resources and climate change

• Main Author: Shvidenko, A.
• Other Authors: Petrov, A, Lobovikov, M
• Format: Book Part
• Language: unknown
• Published: FAO 2012
• Subjects: permafrost
• Online Access: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10077/; http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/i3020e/i3020e00.pdf

According to available forecasts, the most significant climatic changes on the planet are expected in the territory of the Russian Federation. According to the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by the end of the twenty-first century, the following changes will take place in Russian Federation territory: - Probable annual temperature increases will range from 4 to 12 degrees C. Average temperature increase will be around 4-4.5 degrees C. - Precipitation will increase on average by 11-18 percent, mostly in winter. - Climate variability will increase significantly. - Generally, the climate of the Russian Federation will be warmer and drier. Frequent summer dry periods are expected over a large part of the country. Forests will be subject to strong water stress, especially in the southern and south-western parts of the country. - Considerable disruption of permafrost, covering over two-thirds of the area of the country, is expected. Permafrost thawing will essentially intensify the greenhouse effect, because permafrost at high latitudes contains over 500 billion tonnes of carbon, mostly in the form of methane and hydrates. The thawing of the permafrost soil will result in irreversible damage to forest hydrological regimes, especially in low rainfall areas.