Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming

• Published in: Communications Earth & Environment
• Main Authors: von Salzen, K., Whaley, C.H., Anenberg, S.C., Van Dingenen, R., Klimont, Z., Flanner, M.G., Mahmood, R., Arnold, S.R., Beagley, S., Chien, R.-Y., Christensen, J.H., Eckhardt, S., Ekman, A.M.L., Evangeliou, N., Faluvegi, G., Fu, J.S., Gauss, M., Gong, W., Hjorth, J.L., Im, U., Krishnan, S., Kupiainen, K., Kühn, T., Langner, J., Law, K.S., Marelle, L., Olivié, D., Onishi, T., Oshima, N., Paunu, V.-V., Peng, Y., Plummer, D., Pozzoli, L., Rao, S., Raut, J.-C., Sand, M., Schmale, J., Sigmond, M., Thomas, M.A., Tsigaridis, K., Tsyro, S., Turnock, S.T., Wang, M., Winter, B.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2022
• Subjects: Arctic; Human health
• Online Access: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18303/; https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/18303/1/s43247-022-00555-x.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00555-x

A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.