Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model
The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990-2014) and future (2015-2050) simulations have been carried out...
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European Geosciences Union (EGU)
2021
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Online Access: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17335/ https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17335/1/acp-21-10413-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 |
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ftiiasalaxenburg:oai:pure.iiasa.ac.at:17335 2023-05-15T14:27:21+02:00 Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model Im, U. Tsigaridis, K. Faluvegi, G. Langen, P.L. French, J.P. Mahmood, R. Thomas, M.A. von Salzen, K. Thomas, D.C. Whaley, C.H. Klimont, Z. Skov, H. Brandt, J. 2021-07-09 text https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17335/ https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17335/1/acp-21-10413-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 en eng European Geosciences Union (EGU) https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17335/1/acp-21-10413-2021.pdf Im, U., Tsigaridis, K., Faluvegi, G., Langen, P.L., French, J.P., Mahmood, R., Thomas, M.A., von Salzen, K., et al. (2021). Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 (13) 10413-10438. 10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 <https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021>. doi:10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftiiasalaxenburg https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 2023-04-07T14:54:43Z The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990-2014) and future (2015-2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60 N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO42-), by more than 50%, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO42- burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10%-60% following the reductions of 7%-78% in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030-2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol-radiation interactions (RFARI) of -0.39±0.01Wm-2, which is -0.08Wm-2 larger than the 1990-2010 mean forcing (-0.32Wm-2), of which -0.24±0.01Wm-2 was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of -0.35 to -0.40Wm-2 for the same period, which is -0.01 to -0.06Wm-2 larger than the 1990-2010 mean forcing of -0.35Wm-2. The scenarios with little to no mitigation ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic black carbon Climate change IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis: PUblications REpository) Arctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 13 10413 10438 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis: PUblications REpository) |
op_collection_id |
ftiiasalaxenburg |
language |
English |
description |
The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990-2014) and future (2015-2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60 N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO42-), by more than 50%, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO42- burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10%-60% following the reductions of 7%-78% in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030-2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol-radiation interactions (RFARI) of -0.39±0.01Wm-2, which is -0.08Wm-2 larger than the 1990-2010 mean forcing (-0.32Wm-2), of which -0.24±0.01Wm-2 was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of -0.35 to -0.40Wm-2 for the same period, which is -0.01 to -0.06Wm-2 larger than the 1990-2010 mean forcing of -0.35Wm-2. The scenarios with little to no mitigation ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Im, U. Tsigaridis, K. Faluvegi, G. Langen, P.L. French, J.P. Mahmood, R. Thomas, M.A. von Salzen, K. Thomas, D.C. Whaley, C.H. Klimont, Z. Skov, H. Brandt, J. |
spellingShingle |
Im, U. Tsigaridis, K. Faluvegi, G. Langen, P.L. French, J.P. Mahmood, R. Thomas, M.A. von Salzen, K. Thomas, D.C. Whaley, C.H. Klimont, Z. Skov, H. Brandt, J. Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
author_facet |
Im, U. Tsigaridis, K. Faluvegi, G. Langen, P.L. French, J.P. Mahmood, R. Thomas, M.A. von Salzen, K. Thomas, D.C. Whaley, C.H. Klimont, Z. Skov, H. Brandt, J. |
author_sort |
Im, U. |
title |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_short |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_full |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_fullStr |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model |
title_sort |
present and future aerosol impacts on arctic climate change in the giss-e2.1 earth system model |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union (EGU) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17335/ https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17335/1/acp-21-10413-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic black carbon Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic black carbon Climate change |
op_relation |
https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/17335/1/acp-21-10413-2021.pdf Im, U., Tsigaridis, K., Faluvegi, G., Langen, P.L., French, J.P., Mahmood, R., Thomas, M.A., von Salzen, K., et al. (2021). Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 (13) 10413-10438. 10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 <https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021>. doi:10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
10413 |
op_container_end_page |
10438 |
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1766301069722255360 |