Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths

The new corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) is rapidly spreading through the world. With insufficient testing, available case data may underestimate the total number of infections. We statistically estimated the cumulative number of cases with confidence intervals from the reported number of deat...

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Main Authors: Brännström, Å., Sjödin, H., Rocklöv, J.
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: (Preprint) 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16396/
https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16396/1/Predicting_the_number_of_COVID-19_cases_from_the_reported_number_of_deaths__Brannstrom_et_al__Preprint_2020_03_22.pdf
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spelling ftiiasalaxenburg:oai:pure.iiasa.ac.at:16396 2023-05-15T16:48:57+02:00 Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths Brännström, Å. Sjödin, H. Rocklöv, J. 2020-03-22 text https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16396/ https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16396/1/Predicting_the_number_of_COVID-19_cases_from_the_reported_number_of_deaths__Brannstrom_et_al__Preprint_2020_03_22.pdf en eng (Preprint) https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16396/1/Predicting_the_number_of_COVID-19_cases_from_the_reported_number_of_deaths__Brannstrom_et_al__Preprint_2020_03_22.pdf Brännström, Å. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/39.html>, Sjödin, H., & Rocklöv, J. (2020). Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths. (Preprint) arr Other NonPeerReviewed 2020 ftiiasalaxenburg 2023-04-07T14:53:59Z The new corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) is rapidly spreading through the world. With insufficient testing, available case data may underestimate the total number of infections. We statistically estimated the cumulative number of cases with confidence intervals from the reported number of deaths, assuming that the number of infections grow exponentially with a constant doubling time. Our findings indicate that the number of unreported infections is likely at least one order of magnitude higher than the reported cases, in particular in the United States and the United Kingdom. This finding is supported by a recent mass screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland which found that the actual case numbers may be about 20 times higher than the officially reported number. Text Iceland IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis: PUblications REpository)
institution Open Polar
collection IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis: PUblications REpository)
op_collection_id ftiiasalaxenburg
language English
description The new corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) is rapidly spreading through the world. With insufficient testing, available case data may underestimate the total number of infections. We statistically estimated the cumulative number of cases with confidence intervals from the reported number of deaths, assuming that the number of infections grow exponentially with a constant doubling time. Our findings indicate that the number of unreported infections is likely at least one order of magnitude higher than the reported cases, in particular in the United States and the United Kingdom. This finding is supported by a recent mass screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland which found that the actual case numbers may be about 20 times higher than the officially reported number.
format Text
author Brännström, Å.
Sjödin, H.
Rocklöv, J.
spellingShingle Brännström, Å.
Sjödin, H.
Rocklöv, J.
Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths
author_facet Brännström, Å.
Sjödin, H.
Rocklöv, J.
author_sort Brännström, Å.
title Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths
title_short Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths
title_full Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths
title_fullStr Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths
title_sort predicting the number of covid-19 cases from the reported number of deaths
publisher (Preprint)
publishDate 2020
url https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16396/
https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16396/1/Predicting_the_number_of_COVID-19_cases_from_the_reported_number_of_deaths__Brannstrom_et_al__Preprint_2020_03_22.pdf
genre Iceland
genre_facet Iceland
op_relation https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16396/1/Predicting_the_number_of_COVID-19_cases_from_the_reported_number_of_deaths__Brannstrom_et_al__Preprint_2020_03_22.pdf
Brännström, Å. <https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/view/iiasa/39.html>, Sjödin, H., & Rocklöv, J. (2020). Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases from the reported number of deaths. (Preprint)
op_rights arr
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