Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya
Like many African countries, Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high risk countries. This raises concern about the effect of an outbreak on rural livelihoods. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulat...
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ftifpriir:oai:ebrary.ifpri.org:p15738coll5/3533 2023-05-15T15:34:14+02:00 Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya Thurlow, James 2011 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00286.x http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll5/id/3533 English eng eng African Development Review http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00286.x doi:10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00286.x http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll5/id/3533 Restricted African Development Review 23(3) : 279-288 KENYA EAST AFRICA AFRICA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA mathematical models C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model Journal article 2011 ftifpriir https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00286.x 2020-07-31T06:31:51Z Like many African countries, Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high risk countries. This raises concern about the effect of an outbreak on rural livelihoods. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate outbreaks of different severities, durations and geographic spreads. Results indicate that even a severe outbreak does not greatly reduce economic growth. It does, however, have larger implications for poverty, since poultry is an income source for many poor farmers and a major food item in poor consumers’ baskets. Reducing an outbreak's duration and spatial transmission substantially reduces economic losses, although losses still occur when poultry demand falls, even without a confirmed outbreak. Continued monitoring of poultry production and trade is therefore needed, even if an outbreak has not yet occurred. Efforts to enhance government capacity to respond rapidly to infections and improve farmers’ and consumers’ awareness of avian flu are also needed. IFPRI3; ISI DSGD PR Article in Journal/Newspaper Avian flu IFPRI Knowledge Collections (International Food Policy Research Institute) Isi ENVELOPE(-38.550,-38.550,65.617,65.617) African Development Review 23 3 276 288 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IFPRI Knowledge Collections (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
op_collection_id |
ftifpriir |
language |
English |
topic |
KENYA EAST AFRICA AFRICA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA mathematical models C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model |
spellingShingle |
KENYA EAST AFRICA AFRICA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA mathematical models C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model Thurlow, James Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya |
topic_facet |
KENYA EAST AFRICA AFRICA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA mathematical models C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model |
description |
Like many African countries, Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high risk countries. This raises concern about the effect of an outbreak on rural livelihoods. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate outbreaks of different severities, durations and geographic spreads. Results indicate that even a severe outbreak does not greatly reduce economic growth. It does, however, have larger implications for poverty, since poultry is an income source for many poor farmers and a major food item in poor consumers’ baskets. Reducing an outbreak's duration and spatial transmission substantially reduces economic losses, although losses still occur when poultry demand falls, even without a confirmed outbreak. Continued monitoring of poultry production and trade is therefore needed, even if an outbreak has not yet occurred. Efforts to enhance government capacity to respond rapidly to infections and improve farmers’ and consumers’ awareness of avian flu are also needed. IFPRI3; ISI DSGD PR |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Thurlow, James |
author_facet |
Thurlow, James |
author_sort |
Thurlow, James |
title |
Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya |
title_short |
Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya |
title_full |
Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya |
title_fullStr |
Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consequences of Avian Flu for Growth and Poverty: A CGE Analysis for Kenya |
title_sort |
consequences of avian flu for growth and poverty: a cge analysis for kenya |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00286.x http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll5/id/3533 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-38.550,-38.550,65.617,65.617) |
geographic |
Isi |
geographic_facet |
Isi |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_source |
African Development Review 23(3) : 279-288 |
op_relation |
African Development Review http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00286.x doi:10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00286.x http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll5/id/3533 |
op_rights |
Restricted |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2011.00286.x |
container_title |
African Development Review |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
276 |
op_container_end_page |
288 |
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1766364704711639040 |