Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa
In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of a...
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International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
2006
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ftifpriir:oai:ebrary.ifpri.org:p15738coll2/35338 2023-05-15T15:34:32+02:00 Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa a spatial equilibrium model analysis You, Liangzhi Diao, Xinshen You, Liangzhi; 2006 47 pages http://www.ifpri.org/divs/dsgd/dp/dsgdp40.asp http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/35338 English eng eng International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Washington, D.C. DSGD Discussion Paper 40 DSG DP40 http://www.ifpri.org/divs/dsgd/dp/dsgdp40.asp 35338 http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/35338 Open Access IFPRI NIGERIA WEST AFRICA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling Small farmers Spatial analysis (Statistics) Animal diseases avian flu Avian influenzavirus Poultry Economic situation Prices production Q11 Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models Discussion paper 2006 ftifpriir 2020-07-31T06:15:05Z In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4 percent of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect—consumers’ reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices—is generally larger than the direct effect. The study estimates that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21 percent and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario occurred. The negative impact of AI would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously hurt. This study is based on a spatial equilibrium model that makes use of the most recent spatial distribution data sets for poultry and human populations in West Africa. The study shows that, while most of the attention has focused on preventing global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, subnational, and local levels, because AI could potentially have a huge negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa. Non-PR IFPRI1; Disaster Prevention and Recovery; ReSAKSS DSGD Report Avian flu IFPRI Knowledge Collections (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IFPRI Knowledge Collections (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
op_collection_id |
ftifpriir |
language |
English |
topic |
NIGERIA WEST AFRICA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling Small farmers Spatial analysis (Statistics) Animal diseases avian flu Avian influenzavirus Poultry Economic situation Prices production Q11 Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models |
spellingShingle |
NIGERIA WEST AFRICA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling Small farmers Spatial analysis (Statistics) Animal diseases avian flu Avian influenzavirus Poultry Economic situation Prices production Q11 Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models You, Liangzhi Diao, Xinshen You, Liangzhi; Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa |
topic_facet |
NIGERIA WEST AFRICA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling Small farmers Spatial analysis (Statistics) Animal diseases avian flu Avian influenzavirus Poultry Economic situation Prices production Q11 Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models |
description |
In this paper, the authors analyze the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in West Africa, taking Nigeria as an example. They find that, depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be the loss of about 4 percent of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect—consumers’ reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices—is generally larger than the direct effect. The study estimates that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21 percent and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst-case scenario occurred. The negative impact of AI would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously hurt. This study is based on a spatial equilibrium model that makes use of the most recent spatial distribution data sets for poultry and human populations in West Africa. The study shows that, while most of the attention has focused on preventing global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, subnational, and local levels, because AI could potentially have a huge negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa. Non-PR IFPRI1; Disaster Prevention and Recovery; ReSAKSS DSGD |
format |
Report |
author |
You, Liangzhi Diao, Xinshen You, Liangzhi; |
author_facet |
You, Liangzhi Diao, Xinshen You, Liangzhi; |
author_sort |
You, Liangzhi |
title |
Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa |
title_short |
Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa |
title_full |
Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa |
title_fullStr |
Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in West Africa |
title_sort |
assessing potential impact of avian influenza on poultry in west africa |
publisher |
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://www.ifpri.org/divs/dsgd/dp/dsgdp40.asp http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/35338 |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_relation |
DSGD Discussion Paper 40 DSG DP40 http://www.ifpri.org/divs/dsgd/dp/dsgdp40.asp 35338 http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/35338 |
op_rights |
Open Access IFPRI |
_version_ |
1766364894838390784 |