Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya
Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high-risk countries. This raises concerns about the effect an outbreak could have on economic development. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate potential outbr...
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International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
2010
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ftifpriir:oai:ebrary.ifpri.org:p15738coll2/272 2024-09-15T17:56:46+00:00 Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya Thurlow, James | orcid:0000-0003-3414-374X KENYA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA 2010 19 pages http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/272 English eng eng International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Washington, DC IFPRI Discussion Paper 951 IFPRIDP00951 272 http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/272 Open Access Effective January 2007, the Discussion Paper series within each division and the Director General's Office of IFPRI were merged into one IFPRI-wide Discussion Paper series. The new series begins with number 00689, reflecting the prior publication of 688 discussion papers within the dispersed series. The earlier series are available on IFPRI's website at http://www.ifpri.org/publications/results/taxonomy%3A468. IFPRI Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results. They have not been subject to formal external reviews managed by IFPRI's Publications Review Committee but have been reviewed by at least one internal and/or external reviewer. They are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. IFPRI avian influenza developing countries avian flu economic growth poverty computable general equilibrium (CGE) model development strategies C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models Discussion paper 2010 ftifpriir 2024-08-28T03:41:02Z Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high-risk countries. This raises concerns about the effect an outbreak could have on economic development. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate potential outbreaks of different severities, durations, and geographic spreads. Results indicate that even a severe outbreak does not greatly reduce economic growth. It does, however, significantly worsen poverty, because poultry is an important income source for poor farmers and a major food item in consumers� baskets. Avian flu therefore does pose a threat to future development in Kenya. Reducing the duration and geographic spread of an outbreak is found to substantially lower economic losses. However, losses are still incurred when poultry demand falls, even without a confirmed outbreak but only the threat of an outbreak. Our findings support monitoring poultry production and trade, responding rapidly to possible infections, and improving both farmers� and consumers� awareness of avian flu. Non-PR IFPRI1; GRP32 DSGD Report Avian flu IFPRI Knowledge Collections (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
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Open Polar |
collection |
IFPRI Knowledge Collections (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
op_collection_id |
ftifpriir |
language |
English |
topic |
avian influenza developing countries avian flu economic growth poverty computable general equilibrium (CGE) model development strategies C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models |
spellingShingle |
avian influenza developing countries avian flu economic growth poverty computable general equilibrium (CGE) model development strategies C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models Thurlow, James | orcid:0000-0003-3414-374X Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya |
topic_facet |
avian influenza developing countries avian flu economic growth poverty computable general equilibrium (CGE) model development strategies C68 Computable General Equilibrium Models |
description |
Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high-risk countries. This raises concerns about the effect an outbreak could have on economic development. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate potential outbreaks of different severities, durations, and geographic spreads. Results indicate that even a severe outbreak does not greatly reduce economic growth. It does, however, significantly worsen poverty, because poultry is an important income source for poor farmers and a major food item in consumers� baskets. Avian flu therefore does pose a threat to future development in Kenya. Reducing the duration and geographic spread of an outbreak is found to substantially lower economic losses. However, losses are still incurred when poultry demand falls, even without a confirmed outbreak but only the threat of an outbreak. Our findings support monitoring poultry production and trade, responding rapidly to possible infections, and improving both farmers� and consumers� awareness of avian flu. Non-PR IFPRI1; GRP32 DSGD |
format |
Report |
author |
Thurlow, James | orcid:0000-0003-3414-374X |
author_facet |
Thurlow, James | orcid:0000-0003-3414-374X |
author_sort |
Thurlow, James |
title |
Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya |
title_short |
Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya |
title_full |
Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya |
title_fullStr |
Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya |
title_full_unstemmed |
Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya |
title_sort |
implications of avian flu for economic development in kenya |
publisher |
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/272 |
op_coverage |
KENYA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_relation |
IFPRI Discussion Paper 951 IFPRIDP00951 272 http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/272 |
op_rights |
Open Access Effective January 2007, the Discussion Paper series within each division and the Director General's Office of IFPRI were merged into one IFPRI-wide Discussion Paper series. The new series begins with number 00689, reflecting the prior publication of 688 discussion papers within the dispersed series. The earlier series are available on IFPRI's website at http://www.ifpri.org/publications/results/taxonomy%3A468. IFPRI Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results. They have not been subject to formal external reviews managed by IFPRI's Publications Review Committee but have been reviewed by at least one internal and/or external reviewer. They are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. IFPRI |
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1810432968808726528 |