The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre: modelled impacts of climate change, acidification and fishing
The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre is a cyclonic gyre with high primary production due to local upwelling of nutrients and occasional deep overturning up to 1 km depth. This nutrient-rich state is in sharp contrast to other parts of the Eastern Mediterranean which are oligotrophic. Here we investigated t...
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Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña
2022
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16373 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14016 |
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ftieo:oai:repositorio.ieo.es:10508/16373 2023-05-15T17:36:21+02:00 The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre: modelled impacts of climate change, acidification and fishing van Leeuwen, Sonja Beecham, Jonathan García-García, L. (Luz) Thorpe, Robert Océan atlantique Atlantique Nord Atlantic Ocean Atlántico Norte Océano Atlántico ICES North Atlantic 2022-06-02 http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16373 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14016 eng eng Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña 0171-8630 http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16373 1616-1599 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14016 open access Rhodes Gyre Ecosystem modelling Climate change Fishing pressure European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model ERSEM Ecopath with Ecosim fish acidification primary production overturn climate research article SMUR 2022 ftieo https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14016 2022-10-11T23:46:59Z The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre is a cyclonic gyre with high primary production due to local upwelling of nutrients and occasional deep overturning up to 1 km depth. This nutrient-rich state is in sharp contrast to other parts of the Eastern Mediterranean which are oligotrophic. Here we investigated the upwelling system central to the Rhodes Gyre and the impact of different stressors like meteorological changes, acidification and fishing pressure up to the year 2100. A water column model spanning the physical, chemical and biological system up to top predators (GOTM-ERSEM-BFM-EwE) was used to simulate the pelagic environment under single and combined stressors. Results show that due to increasing winter temperatures, deep overturning events will become more rare in the future until they stop occurring around 2060 under the Paris-agreement climate scenario (RCP4.5) or around 2040 under the business-as-usual climate scenario (RCP8.5). Stratification will become stronger as temperature effects outweigh salinity effects in the surface mixed layer. Together with the lack of deep overturning, this stronger stratification limits the nutrient supply to the euphotic zone, significantly reducing primary production. Phytoplankton species shift towards smaller species as nutrients become more scarce, mimicking the situation found currently on the edge of the gyre. Climatic changes and fishing pressure will affect higher trophic levels in an additive way for some species (sardines, dolphins), while in a synergistic way for others (anchovy, mackerel). Acidification impacts are negligible. Fish stocks will reduce significantly under all scenarios involving climate change effects: ~30% under scenarios imposing RCP4.5 and ~40% under scenarios imposing RCP8.5. The beneficial impact of maximum sustained yield-level fishing is very limited, indicating a need for mitigating measures beyond fleet control. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Instituto Español de Oceanografía: e-IEO Marine Ecology Progress Series 690 31 50 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Instituto Español de Oceanografía: e-IEO |
op_collection_id |
ftieo |
language |
English |
topic |
Rhodes Gyre Ecosystem modelling Climate change Fishing pressure European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model ERSEM Ecopath with Ecosim fish acidification primary production overturn climate |
spellingShingle |
Rhodes Gyre Ecosystem modelling Climate change Fishing pressure European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model ERSEM Ecopath with Ecosim fish acidification primary production overturn climate van Leeuwen, Sonja Beecham, Jonathan García-García, L. (Luz) Thorpe, Robert The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre: modelled impacts of climate change, acidification and fishing |
topic_facet |
Rhodes Gyre Ecosystem modelling Climate change Fishing pressure European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model ERSEM Ecopath with Ecosim fish acidification primary production overturn climate |
description |
The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre is a cyclonic gyre with high primary production due to local upwelling of nutrients and occasional deep overturning up to 1 km depth. This nutrient-rich state is in sharp contrast to other parts of the Eastern Mediterranean which are oligotrophic. Here we investigated the upwelling system central to the Rhodes Gyre and the impact of different stressors like meteorological changes, acidification and fishing pressure up to the year 2100. A water column model spanning the physical, chemical and biological system up to top predators (GOTM-ERSEM-BFM-EwE) was used to simulate the pelagic environment under single and combined stressors. Results show that due to increasing winter temperatures, deep overturning events will become more rare in the future until they stop occurring around 2060 under the Paris-agreement climate scenario (RCP4.5) or around 2040 under the business-as-usual climate scenario (RCP8.5). Stratification will become stronger as temperature effects outweigh salinity effects in the surface mixed layer. Together with the lack of deep overturning, this stronger stratification limits the nutrient supply to the euphotic zone, significantly reducing primary production. Phytoplankton species shift towards smaller species as nutrients become more scarce, mimicking the situation found currently on the edge of the gyre. Climatic changes and fishing pressure will affect higher trophic levels in an additive way for some species (sardines, dolphins), while in a synergistic way for others (anchovy, mackerel). Acidification impacts are negligible. Fish stocks will reduce significantly under all scenarios involving climate change effects: ~30% under scenarios imposing RCP4.5 and ~40% under scenarios imposing RCP8.5. The beneficial impact of maximum sustained yield-level fishing is very limited, indicating a need for mitigating measures beyond fleet control. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van Leeuwen, Sonja Beecham, Jonathan García-García, L. (Luz) Thorpe, Robert |
author_facet |
van Leeuwen, Sonja Beecham, Jonathan García-García, L. (Luz) Thorpe, Robert |
author_sort |
van Leeuwen, Sonja |
title |
The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre: modelled impacts of climate change, acidification and fishing |
title_short |
The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre: modelled impacts of climate change, acidification and fishing |
title_full |
The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre: modelled impacts of climate change, acidification and fishing |
title_fullStr |
The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre: modelled impacts of climate change, acidification and fishing |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Mediterranean Rhodes Gyre: modelled impacts of climate change, acidification and fishing |
title_sort |
mediterranean rhodes gyre: modelled impacts of climate change, acidification and fishing |
publisher |
Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16373 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14016 |
op_coverage |
Océan atlantique Atlantique Nord Atlantic Ocean Atlántico Norte Océano Atlántico ICES North Atlantic |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
0171-8630 http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16373 1616-1599 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14016 |
op_rights |
open access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14016 |
container_title |
Marine Ecology Progress Series |
container_volume |
690 |
container_start_page |
31 |
op_container_end_page |
50 |
_version_ |
1766135803080081408 |