Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections
Climate change is affecting large-scale oceanic processes. How and when these changes will impact those reliant on marine resources is not yet clear. Here we use end-to-end modeling to track the impacts of expected changes through the marine ecosystem on a specific, small community: Cochamó, in the...
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Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña
2021
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16310 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 |
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ftieo:oai:repositorio.ieo.es:10508/16310 2023-05-15T17:51:42+02:00 Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections Van Leeuwen, Sonja Salgado, Hugo Bailey, Jennifer L. Beecham, Jonathan Iriarte, Jose L. García-García, L. (Luz) Thorpe, Robert 2021-12-09 http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16310 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 eng eng Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña 0171-8630 http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16310 Marine Ecology Progress series, 680. 2021: 223-246 1616-1599 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 open access fish marine resources climate marine ecology ecology research article AM 2021 ftieo https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 2022-10-11T23:46:57Z Climate change is affecting large-scale oceanic processes. How and when these changes will impact those reliant on marine resources is not yet clear. Here we use end-to-end modeling to track the impacts of expected changes through the marine ecosystem on a specific, small community: Cochamó, in the Gulf of Ancud wider area, Chile. This area is important for Chilean fisheries and aquaculture, with Cochamó reliant on both lower and upper trophic level marine resources. We applied the GOTM-ERSEM-BFM coupled hydro-biogeochemical water-column model to gauge lower-trophic level marine ecological community response to bottom-up stressors (climate change, ocean acidification), coupled to an existing Ecopath with Ecosim model for the area, which included top-down stressors (fishing). Social scientists also used participatory modeling (Systems Thinking and Bayesian Belief Networking) to identify key resources for Cochamó residents and to assess the community’s vulnerability to possible changes in key resources. Modeling results suggest that flagellate phytoplankton abundance will increase at the cost of other species (particularly diatoms), resulting in a greater risk of harmful algae blooms. Both climate change and acidification slightly increased primary production in the model. Higher trophic level results indicate that some targeted pelagic resources will decline (while benthic ones may benefit), but that these effects might be mitigated by strong fisheries management efforts. Participatory modeling suggests that Cochamó inhabitants anticipate marine ecosystem changes but are divided about possible adaptation strategies. For climate change impact quantification, detailed experimental studies are recommended based on the dominant threats identified here, with specific local species. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification Instituto Español de Oceanografía: e-IEO Marine Ecology Progress Series 680 223 246 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Instituto Español de Oceanografía: e-IEO |
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language |
English |
topic |
fish marine resources climate marine ecology ecology |
spellingShingle |
fish marine resources climate marine ecology ecology Van Leeuwen, Sonja Salgado, Hugo Bailey, Jennifer L. Beecham, Jonathan Iriarte, Jose L. García-García, L. (Luz) Thorpe, Robert Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
topic_facet |
fish marine resources climate marine ecology ecology |
description |
Climate change is affecting large-scale oceanic processes. How and when these changes will impact those reliant on marine resources is not yet clear. Here we use end-to-end modeling to track the impacts of expected changes through the marine ecosystem on a specific, small community: Cochamó, in the Gulf of Ancud wider area, Chile. This area is important for Chilean fisheries and aquaculture, with Cochamó reliant on both lower and upper trophic level marine resources. We applied the GOTM-ERSEM-BFM coupled hydro-biogeochemical water-column model to gauge lower-trophic level marine ecological community response to bottom-up stressors (climate change, ocean acidification), coupled to an existing Ecopath with Ecosim model for the area, which included top-down stressors (fishing). Social scientists also used participatory modeling (Systems Thinking and Bayesian Belief Networking) to identify key resources for Cochamó residents and to assess the community’s vulnerability to possible changes in key resources. Modeling results suggest that flagellate phytoplankton abundance will increase at the cost of other species (particularly diatoms), resulting in a greater risk of harmful algae blooms. Both climate change and acidification slightly increased primary production in the model. Higher trophic level results indicate that some targeted pelagic resources will decline (while benthic ones may benefit), but that these effects might be mitigated by strong fisheries management efforts. Participatory modeling suggests that Cochamó inhabitants anticipate marine ecosystem changes but are divided about possible adaptation strategies. For climate change impact quantification, detailed experimental studies are recommended based on the dominant threats identified here, with specific local species. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Van Leeuwen, Sonja Salgado, Hugo Bailey, Jennifer L. Beecham, Jonathan Iriarte, Jose L. García-García, L. (Luz) Thorpe, Robert |
author_facet |
Van Leeuwen, Sonja Salgado, Hugo Bailey, Jennifer L. Beecham, Jonathan Iriarte, Jose L. García-García, L. (Luz) Thorpe, Robert |
author_sort |
Van Leeuwen, Sonja |
title |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_short |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_full |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_fullStr |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change, marine resources and a small Chilean community: making the connections |
title_sort |
climate change, marine resources and a small chilean community: making the connections |
publisher |
Centro Oceanográfico de A Coruña |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16310 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
0171-8630 http://hdl.handle.net/10508/16310 Marine Ecology Progress series, 680. 2021: 223-246 1616-1599 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 |
op_rights |
open access |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/meps13934 |
container_title |
Marine Ecology Progress Series |
container_volume |
680 |
container_start_page |
223 |
op_container_end_page |
246 |
_version_ |
1766158916246306816 |