Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes
This study was undertaken under the Indus Basin Programme of ICIMOD, funded in part by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID), through their financial support of core research at ICIMOD. This work is partly carried out by the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilie...
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ftidrcdspace:oai:idl-bnc-idrc.dspacedirect.org:10625/57494 2023-12-24T10:16:58+01:00 Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes Lutz, A.F. Immerzeel, W.W. Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A. Shrestha, A.B. Bierkens, P. 2016-11 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10625/57494 en eng PLOS One Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Kraaijenbrink, PDA, Shrestha, AB, Bierkens, MFP (2016) Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extermes. PLoS ONE 11(11):e0165630.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0165630 http://hdl.handle.net/10625/57494 MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE HIMALAYA INDUS BASIN TIBET AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN INDIA CHINA CRYOSPHERIC-HYDROLOGICAL MODEL Journal Article (peer-reviewed) 2016 ftidrcdspace https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165630 2023-11-26T00:17:20Z This study was undertaken under the Indus Basin Programme of ICIMOD, funded in part by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID), through their financial support of core research at ICIMOD. This work is partly carried out by the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE) consortium under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, Canada. The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer ... Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier* International Development Research Centre: IDRC Digital Library Canada Geodetic Glacier ENVELOPE(163.800,163.800,-77.750,-77.750) PLOS ONE 11 11 e0165630 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
International Development Research Centre: IDRC Digital Library |
op_collection_id |
ftidrcdspace |
language |
English |
topic |
MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE HIMALAYA INDUS BASIN TIBET AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN INDIA CHINA CRYOSPHERIC-HYDROLOGICAL MODEL |
spellingShingle |
MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE HIMALAYA INDUS BASIN TIBET AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN INDIA CHINA CRYOSPHERIC-HYDROLOGICAL MODEL Lutz, A.F. Immerzeel, W.W. Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A. Shrestha, A.B. Bierkens, P. Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes |
topic_facet |
MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE HIMALAYA INDUS BASIN TIBET AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN INDIA CHINA CRYOSPHERIC-HYDROLOGICAL MODEL |
description |
This study was undertaken under the Indus Basin Programme of ICIMOD, funded in part by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID), through their financial support of core research at ICIMOD. This work is partly carried out by the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE) consortium under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, Canada. The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lutz, A.F. Immerzeel, W.W. Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A. Shrestha, A.B. Bierkens, P. |
author_facet |
Lutz, A.F. Immerzeel, W.W. Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A. Shrestha, A.B. Bierkens, P. |
author_sort |
Lutz, A.F. |
title |
Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes |
title_short |
Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes |
title_full |
Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes |
title_fullStr |
Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes |
title_sort |
climate change impacts on the upper indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extremes |
publisher |
PLOS One |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10625/57494 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(163.800,163.800,-77.750,-77.750) |
geographic |
Canada Geodetic Glacier |
geographic_facet |
Canada Geodetic Glacier |
genre |
glacier* |
genre_facet |
glacier* |
op_relation |
Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Kraaijenbrink, PDA, Shrestha, AB, Bierkens, MFP (2016) Climate change impacts on the Upper Indus hydrology : sources, shifts and extermes. PLoS ONE 11(11):e0165630.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0165630 http://hdl.handle.net/10625/57494 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0165630 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
e0165630 |
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1786204726102065152 |