Communication between people on the Héðinfjarðar-tunnel: Traffic and comparison with traffic forecast

• Main Author: Heiðarsson, Jón Þorvaldur
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Icelandic
• Published: School of Social Sciences 2015
• Subjects: Samskipti; umferð; þyngdarlíkan; umferðarspá; jarðgöng; vegir; vegstyttingar; samgöngur; Fjallabyggð; Communication; traffic; gravity model; traffic forecast; traffic prediction; tunnels; roads; shortcuttings; transportation; Héðinsfjörður; Ólafsfjörður; Siglufjörður
• Online Access: https://ojs.hi.is/index.php/tf/article/view/3771

A traffic forecast was made prior to the opening of the Héðinsfjörður-tunnels between the towns Siglufjörður and Ólafsfjörður in 2010. The forecast was based on a traffic survey where all traffic in the northern Tröllaskagi peninsula was stopped on a total four days in summer and winter. The forecast did not only involve total traffic but also predicted changes in interactions between towns after the tunnels. The same kind of traffic survey after the tunnels showed that the gravity model in it simplest form gave a good estimate of the total tunnel traffic. It did, however, not give good results regarding traffic between different towns. In that case the scaled gravity model gave a good estimate of the proportions of each leg of the total traffic. The scaling was based on traditions of communication continuing after the opening of the tunnels. For instance, there was a greater tradition for communcation between Siglufjörður and Ólafsfjörður before the tunnels than predicted by the gravity model. The scaled gravity model correctly assumed that such traditions would continue after the tunnels. Fyrir opnun Héðinsfjarðarganga milli Siglufjarðar og Ólafsfjarðar árið 2010 var gerð umferðarspá fyrir umferðina um þau. Spáin byggði á umferðarkönnun þar sem allir bílar á leið um norðanverðan Tröllaskaga voru stöðvaðir samtals fjóra daga að sumri og vetri. Spáin tók ekki einungis til heildarumferðar heldur var spáð fyrir um breytingar á samskiptum milli einstakra bæja eftir að göngin voru opnuð. Sambærileg umferðarkönnun eftir göng sýndi fram á að þyngdarlíkan (e. gravity model) í sinni einföldustu mynd spáði vel fyrir um heildarumferð um göngin. Þyngdarlíkanið eitt og sér gaf hins vegar ekki góða niðurstöðu um umferð milli einstakra bæja. Þar gaf skalað þyngdarlíkan gott mat á hlutdeild einstakra umferðarstrauma. Skalaða þyndarlíkanið reyndist hins vegar ekki gott til að spá fyrir um heildarumferð. Skölunin byggðist á því að gert var ráð fyrir að hefðir í samskiptum héldu sér eftir opnun ganganna. Sem dæmi mældist meiri ...