Foresight and education systems: Making educational policy for the future

• Published in: Netla
• Main Author: Thayer, Tryggvi
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Icelandic
• Published: Menntavísindasvið Háskóla Íslands 2022
• Subjects: the future of education; foresight; education policy; education system; framtíð menntunar; framsýni; menntastefna; menntakerfi; Iceland
• Online Access: https://ojs.hi.is/netla/article/view/3613; https://doi.org/10.24270/serritnetla.2022.82

The article discusses the impact of futures studies and forward-looking planning on the Icelandic education system and the formulation of long-term education policy. The point of departure is Jónasson’s (2016) categorisation of types of systemic inertia that impede change in educational systems from a futures perspective. We start with a brief overview of the development of futures studies as an academic discipline and its application to education and educational policy. A study is reported in which the long-term impacts of foresight programmes on educational organisations in Iceland were examined using Engeström’s cultural-historical activity theory (CHAT). Finally, we reexamine Jónasson’s categorisation of systemic inertia in the context of the results of the study and key concepts from general systems theory.Two foresight programmes were included in the study described, the Iceland 2020 programme; implemented after Iceland’s financial crisis in 2008, and a follow-up action on the future of education, which was implemented by the Ministry of Education and Culture in 2013. The study was conducted in 2017 and 2018 to explore what longterm impacts the programmes had within Icelandic educational organisations and other organisations involved in educational policymaking, including labour organisations, employer organisations, and various public and private organisations. Participants in the study included individuals who had represented their organisations in the foresight programmes. Data were collected using an online survey and semi-structured interviews. Interview data were thematically analysed while quantitative survey data were primarily used for comparison between emergent themes. Qualitative data were further analysed using Engeström’s CHAT model of activity systems, treating participants’ organisations as primary activity systems and the foresight programmes as neighbouring activity systems. The CHAT analysis provided insights into how participants in the foresight programmes transferred and communicated ...