A cross-impact analysis of eight economic parameters in Iceland in the context of Arctic climate change
Previous studies have identified eight parameters as being the most influential on the Icelandic economy in the light of prevailing climate change. This study aims to investigate these economic parameters in relation to the Arctic Region and the Icelandic economy. The study is rooted in the theoreti...
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Institute of Business Research
2018
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fticelandunivojs:oai:ojs.hi.is:article/2778 2023-05-15T14:51:11+02:00 A cross-impact analysis of eight economic parameters in Iceland in the context of Arctic climate change Friðgeirsson, Þórður Víkingur Steindórsdóttir, Freydís Dögg 2018-06-26 application/pdf http://www.efnahagsmal.is/article/view/a.2018.15.1.3 https://doi.org/10.24122/tve.a.2018.15.1.3 eng eng Institute of Business Research http://www.efnahagsmal.is/article/view/a.2018.15.1.3/pdf http://www.efnahagsmal.is/article/view/a.2018.15.1.3 doi:10.24122/tve.a.2018.15.1.3 ##submission.copyrightStatement## Research in applied business and economics; Árg. 15, Nr 1 (2018); 55-74 Tímarit um viðskipti og efnahagsmál; Árg. 15, Nr 1 (2018); 55-74 1670-4851 1670-4444 Arctic region economic parameters decision analysis delphi method cross-impact analysis E17 E66 F47 F62 L78 M21 M38 O11 O22 O33 P21 R10 Z30 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2018 fticelandunivojs https://doi.org/10.24122/tve.a.2018.15.1.3 2022-09-21T13:40:37Z Previous studies have identified eight parameters as being the most influential on the Icelandic economy in the light of prevailing climate change. This study aims to investigate these economic parameters in relation to the Arctic Region and the Icelandic economy. The study is rooted in the theoretical framework of decision analysis and is intended to contribute to strategic and tactical decision making in the context of Iceland and developments resulting from climate changes in the Arctic Region. The study results could eventually lead do a “What if” decision model, where multiple scenarios can be analyzed by inserting/entering different probabilities of a particular outcome. The parameters under screening/review are interdependent, and to construct a decision model these interdependencies must be assessed. The Delphi method was employed, along with the cross-impact analysis, to shed light on the interconnections between eight of these parameters. Diverse views are revealed concerning the impacts between parameters, although a consensus was reached in the second round of the survey. In some instances, the level of agreement was high, while other estimates showed a wide range of responses. The diversity in answers suggests a higher level of uncertainty regarding some parameters and events compared to others. The survey also indicates how challenging the Delphi and cross-impact methods are in terms of the involvement of experts. However, when data is scarce, these methods provide significant insight. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Iceland University of Iceland: Peer Reviewed Journals Arctic Tímarit um viðskipti og efnahagsmál 15 1 55 74 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Iceland: Peer Reviewed Journals |
op_collection_id |
fticelandunivojs |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic region economic parameters decision analysis delphi method cross-impact analysis E17 E66 F47 F62 L78 M21 M38 O11 O22 O33 P21 R10 Z30 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic region economic parameters decision analysis delphi method cross-impact analysis E17 E66 F47 F62 L78 M21 M38 O11 O22 O33 P21 R10 Z30 Friðgeirsson, Þórður Víkingur Steindórsdóttir, Freydís Dögg A cross-impact analysis of eight economic parameters in Iceland in the context of Arctic climate change |
topic_facet |
Arctic region economic parameters decision analysis delphi method cross-impact analysis E17 E66 F47 F62 L78 M21 M38 O11 O22 O33 P21 R10 Z30 |
description |
Previous studies have identified eight parameters as being the most influential on the Icelandic economy in the light of prevailing climate change. This study aims to investigate these economic parameters in relation to the Arctic Region and the Icelandic economy. The study is rooted in the theoretical framework of decision analysis and is intended to contribute to strategic and tactical decision making in the context of Iceland and developments resulting from climate changes in the Arctic Region. The study results could eventually lead do a “What if” decision model, where multiple scenarios can be analyzed by inserting/entering different probabilities of a particular outcome. The parameters under screening/review are interdependent, and to construct a decision model these interdependencies must be assessed. The Delphi method was employed, along with the cross-impact analysis, to shed light on the interconnections between eight of these parameters. Diverse views are revealed concerning the impacts between parameters, although a consensus was reached in the second round of the survey. In some instances, the level of agreement was high, while other estimates showed a wide range of responses. The diversity in answers suggests a higher level of uncertainty regarding some parameters and events compared to others. The survey also indicates how challenging the Delphi and cross-impact methods are in terms of the involvement of experts. However, when data is scarce, these methods provide significant insight. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Friðgeirsson, Þórður Víkingur Steindórsdóttir, Freydís Dögg |
author_facet |
Friðgeirsson, Þórður Víkingur Steindórsdóttir, Freydís Dögg |
author_sort |
Friðgeirsson, Þórður Víkingur |
title |
A cross-impact analysis of eight economic parameters in Iceland in the context of Arctic climate change |
title_short |
A cross-impact analysis of eight economic parameters in Iceland in the context of Arctic climate change |
title_full |
A cross-impact analysis of eight economic parameters in Iceland in the context of Arctic climate change |
title_fullStr |
A cross-impact analysis of eight economic parameters in Iceland in the context of Arctic climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
A cross-impact analysis of eight economic parameters in Iceland in the context of Arctic climate change |
title_sort |
cross-impact analysis of eight economic parameters in iceland in the context of arctic climate change |
publisher |
Institute of Business Research |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.efnahagsmal.is/article/view/a.2018.15.1.3 https://doi.org/10.24122/tve.a.2018.15.1.3 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Iceland |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Iceland |
op_source |
Research in applied business and economics; Árg. 15, Nr 1 (2018); 55-74 Tímarit um viðskipti og efnahagsmál; Árg. 15, Nr 1 (2018); 55-74 1670-4851 1670-4444 |
op_relation |
http://www.efnahagsmal.is/article/view/a.2018.15.1.3/pdf http://www.efnahagsmal.is/article/view/a.2018.15.1.3 doi:10.24122/tve.a.2018.15.1.3 |
op_rights |
##submission.copyrightStatement## |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.24122/tve.a.2018.15.1.3 |
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Tímarit um viðskipti og efnahagsmál |
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15 |
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55 |
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1766322240208502784 |