What were the voters thinking? The presidential election in Iceland 2012

• Published in: Veftímaritið Stjórnmál og stjórnsýsla
• Main Authors: Kristinsson, Gunnar Helgi, Indriðason, Indriði H., Valgarðsson, Viktor Orri
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Icelandic
• Published: Stjórnsýslustofnun 2012
• Subjects: Presidential election; Iceland; personality factors; party effects; tactical voting; Forsetakosningar; Ísland; persónuþættir; áhrif stjórnmálaflokka; taktísk kosning; Lægra; Sitjandi
• Online Access: http://www.irpa.is/article/view/a.2012.8.2.2; https://doi.org/10.13177/irpa.a.2012.8.2.2

Social scientists have not done much research on presidential elections in Iceland and therefore little is known about the factors which affect their results. The presidential election on June 30th 2012 was unusual partly because the incumbent president faced more serious opponents and received a lower share of the votes than ever before and partly because the campaign was characterized by more debate about the nature of the office itself than ever before. This article examines the factors that affected the outcome of the election. The findings indicate that voters in general were more preoccupied with personal factors,such as perceived competence, image and honesty, than with the issues or the political opinions of the candidates, although it appears that voters of the two leading candidates had very different perceptions of the role of the president. It seems likely that voters’ attitudes towards the government were the strongest factor affecting the election results. Candidates with a small following were adversely affected by tactical voting but it is unlikely to have had an impact on the outcome of the election. Forsetakosningar á Íslandi hafa ekki mikið verið rannsakaðar af félagsvísindafólki og lítið er þess vegna vitað um hvaða þættir hafa áhrif á úrslit þeirra. Forsetakosningarnar 30. júní 2012 voru óvenjulegar annars vegar vegna þess að sitjandi forseti hlaut alvarlegri mótframboð og lægra hlutfall atkvæða en áður eru dæmi um í forsetakosningum á Íslandi og hins vegar vegna þess að meiri deilur urðu um eðli embættisins sjálfs. Í þessari grein er fjallað um það hvaða þættir höfðu áhrif á úrslitin, á grundvelli könnunar sem gerð var á netinu og annarra gagna. Niðurstöðurnar benda til þess að kjósendur hafi almennt lagt meira upp úr persónulegum þáttum eins og hæfni, ímynd og heiðarleika en málefnum eða stjórnmálaskoðunum frambjóðenda þegar þeir útskýrðu val sitt þótt fram komi að kjósendur meginframbjóðendanna tveggja hafi mjög ólíka sýn á forsetaembættið. Líklegt virðist þó að afstaða kjósenda til ...