Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling
The spatial pattern of Antarctic surface air temperature variability on multi–decadal to multi–centennial time scales is poorly known because of the short instrumental records, the relatively small number of high–resolution paleoclimate observations, and biases in climate models. Here, changes in su...
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fthzgzmk:oai:publications.hereon.de:50018 2023-06-11T04:03:37+02:00 Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling Lyu, Z. Goosse, H. Dalaiden, Q. Klein, F. Shi, F. Wagner, S. Braconnot, P. 2021 https://publications.hereon.de/id/50018 https://publications.hzg.de/id/50018 en eng Elsevier https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107205 urn:issn:0277-3791 https://publications.hereon.de/id/50018 https://publications.hzg.de/id/50018 info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess issn:0277-3791 Lyu, Z.; Goosse, H.; Dalaiden, Q.; Klein, F.; Shi, F.; Wagner, S.; Braconnot, P.: Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling. In: Quaternary Science Reviews. Vol. 271 (2021) 107205. (DOI: /10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107205) info:eu-repo/semantics/article Zeitschrift Artikel 2021 fthzgzmk https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107205 2023-05-28T23:25:24Z The spatial pattern of Antarctic surface air temperature variability on multi–decadal to multi–centennial time scales is poorly known because of the short instrumental records, the relatively small number of high–resolution paleoclimate observations, and biases in climate models. Here, changes in surface air temperature over Antarctica are reconstructed over the past two millennia using data assimilation constrained by different ice core water isotope records in order to identify robust signals. The comparison between previous statistically based temperature reconstructions and simulations covering the full Common Era driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings shows major discrepancies occurring in the period 1–1000 CE over East Antarctica, with the reconstructions displaying a warming over 1–500 CE that is not reproduced by the simulations. This suggests that the trends in the first millennium deduced from the statistically based reconstructions are unlikely to be entirely forced by external forcings. Our reconstructions show the high sensitivity of the 500-year temperature trend in Antarctica and its spatial distribution to selection of the records for the reconstructions, especially during 1–500 CE. A robust cooling over Antarctica during 501–1000 CE has been obtained in three data assimilation–based reconstructions with a larger magnitude in the WAIS than elsewhere over Antarctica, in agreement with previous estimates with the larger changes than simulated in climate models. The reconstructions for atmospheric circulation indicate that the pattern of temperature changes over 501–1000 CE is related to the positive trend of Southern Annular Mode and a deepening of Amundsen Sea Low. This confirms the role of internal variability in the temperature trends on multi–centennial scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica ice core Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) Amundsen Sea Antarctic East Antarctica Quaternary Science Reviews 271 107205 |
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Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) |
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fthzgzmk |
language |
English |
description |
The spatial pattern of Antarctic surface air temperature variability on multi–decadal to multi–centennial time scales is poorly known because of the short instrumental records, the relatively small number of high–resolution paleoclimate observations, and biases in climate models. Here, changes in surface air temperature over Antarctica are reconstructed over the past two millennia using data assimilation constrained by different ice core water isotope records in order to identify robust signals. The comparison between previous statistically based temperature reconstructions and simulations covering the full Common Era driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings shows major discrepancies occurring in the period 1–1000 CE over East Antarctica, with the reconstructions displaying a warming over 1–500 CE that is not reproduced by the simulations. This suggests that the trends in the first millennium deduced from the statistically based reconstructions are unlikely to be entirely forced by external forcings. Our reconstructions show the high sensitivity of the 500-year temperature trend in Antarctica and its spatial distribution to selection of the records for the reconstructions, especially during 1–500 CE. A robust cooling over Antarctica during 501–1000 CE has been obtained in three data assimilation–based reconstructions with a larger magnitude in the WAIS than elsewhere over Antarctica, in agreement with previous estimates with the larger changes than simulated in climate models. The reconstructions for atmospheric circulation indicate that the pattern of temperature changes over 501–1000 CE is related to the positive trend of Southern Annular Mode and a deepening of Amundsen Sea Low. This confirms the role of internal variability in the temperature trends on multi–centennial scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lyu, Z. Goosse, H. Dalaiden, Q. Klein, F. Shi, F. Wagner, S. Braconnot, P. |
spellingShingle |
Lyu, Z. Goosse, H. Dalaiden, Q. Klein, F. Shi, F. Wagner, S. Braconnot, P. Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling |
author_facet |
Lyu, Z. Goosse, H. Dalaiden, Q. Klein, F. Shi, F. Wagner, S. Braconnot, P. |
author_sort |
Lyu, Z. |
title |
Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling |
title_short |
Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling |
title_full |
Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling |
title_fullStr |
Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling |
title_sort |
spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in antarctica over 1–1000 ce: insights from ice core records and modeling |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://publications.hereon.de/id/50018 https://publications.hzg.de/id/50018 |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic East Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic East Antarctica |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica ice core |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica ice core |
op_source |
issn:0277-3791 Lyu, Z.; Goosse, H.; Dalaiden, Q.; Klein, F.; Shi, F.; Wagner, S.; Braconnot, P.: Spatial patterns of multi–centennial surface air temperature trends in Antarctica over 1–1000 CE: Insights from ice core records and modeling. In: Quaternary Science Reviews. Vol. 271 (2021) 107205. (DOI: /10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107205) |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107205 urn:issn:0277-3791 https://publications.hereon.de/id/50018 https://publications.hzg.de/id/50018 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107205 |
container_title |
Quaternary Science Reviews |
container_volume |
271 |
container_start_page |
107205 |
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1768380616844247040 |