Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations
We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970-2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are hig...
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fthzgzmk:oai:publications.hereon.de:40526 2023-06-11T04:14:44+02:00 Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations Borchert, L. Koul, V. Menary, M. Befort, D. Swingedouw, D. Sgubin, G. Mignot, J. 2021 https://publications.hereon.de/id/40526 https://publications.hzg.de/id/40526 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 en eng IOP Publishing https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 urn:issn:1748-9326 https://publications.hereon.de/id/40526 https://publications.hzg.de/id/40526 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_gold issn:1748-9326 Borchert, L.; Koul, V.; Menary, M.; Befort, D.; Swingedouw, D.; Sgubin, G.; Mignot, J.: Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations. In: Environmental Research Letters . Vol. 16 (2021) 10, 104017. (DOI: /10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5) info:eu-repo/semantics/article Zeitschrift Artikel 2021 fthzgzmk https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 2023-05-28T23:25:21Z We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970-2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are highly predictable for up to ten years in CMIP6. Much of this predictive skill, is related to the externally forced response: historical simulations explain about 90% of observed SEU summer temperature variance. Prediction skill for the unforced signal of SEU summer temperature is low: initialized model simulations explain less than 10% of observed variance after removing the externally forced response. An observed link between unforced SEU summer temperature and preceding spring Eastern North Atlantic - Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) motivates the application of a dynamical-statistical model to overcome the low summer temperature skill over Europe. This dynamical-statistical model uses dynamical spring SST predictions to predict European summer temperature, and significantly increases decadal prediction skill of unforced European summer temperature variations, showing significant prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperature 2-9 years ahead. As a result, dynamical-statistical models can benefit the decadal prediction of variables with initially limited skill beyond the forcing, such as summer temperature over Europe. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) Environmental Research Letters 16 10 104017 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) |
op_collection_id |
fthzgzmk |
language |
English |
description |
We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970-2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are highly predictable for up to ten years in CMIP6. Much of this predictive skill, is related to the externally forced response: historical simulations explain about 90% of observed SEU summer temperature variance. Prediction skill for the unforced signal of SEU summer temperature is low: initialized model simulations explain less than 10% of observed variance after removing the externally forced response. An observed link between unforced SEU summer temperature and preceding spring Eastern North Atlantic - Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) motivates the application of a dynamical-statistical model to overcome the low summer temperature skill over Europe. This dynamical-statistical model uses dynamical spring SST predictions to predict European summer temperature, and significantly increases decadal prediction skill of unforced European summer temperature variations, showing significant prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperature 2-9 years ahead. As a result, dynamical-statistical models can benefit the decadal prediction of variables with initially limited skill beyond the forcing, such as summer temperature over Europe. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Borchert, L. Koul, V. Menary, M. Befort, D. Swingedouw, D. Sgubin, G. Mignot, J. |
spellingShingle |
Borchert, L. Koul, V. Menary, M. Befort, D. Swingedouw, D. Sgubin, G. Mignot, J. Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
author_facet |
Borchert, L. Koul, V. Menary, M. Befort, D. Swingedouw, D. Sgubin, G. Mignot, J. |
author_sort |
Borchert, L. |
title |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_short |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_full |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_fullStr |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_sort |
skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern european summer temperature variations |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://publications.hereon.de/id/40526 https://publications.hzg.de/id/40526 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
issn:1748-9326 Borchert, L.; Koul, V.; Menary, M.; Befort, D.; Swingedouw, D.; Sgubin, G.; Mignot, J.: Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations. In: Environmental Research Letters . Vol. 16 (2021) 10, 104017. (DOI: /10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5) |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 urn:issn:1748-9326 https://publications.hereon.de/id/40526 https://publications.hzg.de/id/40526 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_gold |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104017 |
_version_ |
1768370974914248704 |