Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios
Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the south-east exit of the North Atlantic\'s storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analy...
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fthzgzmk:oai:publications.hereon.de:36028 2023-06-11T04:14:12+02:00 Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios Barcikowska, M.J. Weaver, S.J. Feser, F. Russo, S. Schenk, F. Stone, D.A. Zahn, M. 2018 https://publications.hereon.de/id/36028 https://publications.hzg.de/id/36028 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 en eng EGU - Copernicus Publication https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 urn:issn:2190-4979 https://publications.hereon.de/id/36028 https://publications.hzg.de/id/36028 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_gold issn:2190-4979 Barcikowska, M.J.; Weaver, S.J.; Feser, F.; Russo, S.; Schenk, F.; Stone, D.A.; Zahn, M.: Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios. In: Earth System Dynamics. Vol. 9 (2018) 2, 679 - 699. (DOI: /10.5194/esd-9-679-2018) info:eu-repo/semantics/article Zeitschrift Artikel 2018 fthzgzmk https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 2023-05-28T23:24:39Z Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the south-east exit of the North Atlantic\'s storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation which may occur under 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolution indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° is not only refining regional-scale information, but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in SLP and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 °C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 °C global warming level, when the midltatitude jetstream manifests a strengthening north-eastward. At the same time, this north-east shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and north-east expansion of the Azores high leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwest coasts of British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east from Newfoundland experience an increase in ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland North Atlantic Norwegian Sea Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) Norwegian Sea Earth System Dynamics 9 2 679 699 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) |
op_collection_id |
fthzgzmk |
language |
English |
description |
Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the south-east exit of the North Atlantic\'s storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation which may occur under 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolution indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° is not only refining regional-scale information, but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in SLP and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 °C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 °C global warming level, when the midltatitude jetstream manifests a strengthening north-eastward. At the same time, this north-east shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and north-east expansion of the Azores high leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwest coasts of British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east from Newfoundland experience an increase in ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Barcikowska, M.J. Weaver, S.J. Feser, F. Russo, S. Schenk, F. Stone, D.A. Zahn, M. |
spellingShingle |
Barcikowska, M.J. Weaver, S.J. Feser, F. Russo, S. Schenk, F. Stone, D.A. Zahn, M. Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
author_facet |
Barcikowska, M.J. Weaver, S.J. Feser, F. Russo, S. Schenk, F. Stone, D.A. Zahn, M. |
author_sort |
Barcikowska, M.J. |
title |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_short |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_full |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios |
title_sort |
euro-atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °c vs. 2 °c warming scenarios |
publisher |
EGU - Copernicus Publication |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://publications.hereon.de/id/36028 https://publications.hzg.de/id/36028 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 |
geographic |
Norwegian Sea |
geographic_facet |
Norwegian Sea |
genre |
Newfoundland North Atlantic Norwegian Sea |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland North Atlantic Norwegian Sea |
op_source |
issn:2190-4979 Barcikowska, M.J.; Weaver, S.J.; Feser, F.; Russo, S.; Schenk, F.; Stone, D.A.; Zahn, M.: Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios. In: Earth System Dynamics. Vol. 9 (2018) 2, 679 - 699. (DOI: /10.5194/esd-9-679-2018) |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 urn:issn:2190-4979 https://publications.hereon.de/id/36028 https://publications.hzg.de/id/36028 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_gold |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
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9 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
679 |
op_container_end_page |
699 |
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