Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network
Two statistical methods are tested to reconstruct the inter-annual variations of past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean over the past millennium, based on annually resolved and absolutely dated marine proxy records of the bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica. The methods...
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fthzgzmk:oai:publications.hereon.de:35352 2023-06-11T04:10:03+02:00 Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network Pyrina, M. Wagner, S. Zorita, E. 2017 https://publications.hereon.de/id/35352 https://publications.hzg.de/id/35352 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017 en eng EGU - Copernicus Publication https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017 urn:issn:1814-9324 https://publications.hereon.de/id/35352 https://publications.hzg.de/id/35352 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_gold issn:1814-9324 Pyrina, M.; Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.: Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network . In: Climate of the Past. Vol. 13 (2017) 10, 1339 - 1354. (DOI: /10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017) info:eu-repo/semantics/article Zeitschrift Artikel 2017 fthzgzmk https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017 2023-05-28T23:24:32Z Two statistical methods are tested to reconstruct the inter-annual variations of past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean over the past millennium, based on annually resolved and absolutely dated marine proxy records of the bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica. The methods are tested in a pseudo-proxy experiment (PPE) set-up using state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP5 Earth System Models) and reanalysis data from the COBE2 SST data set. The methods were applied in the virtual reality provided by global climate simulations and reanalysis data to reconstruct the past NA SSTs, using pseudoproxy records that mimic the statistical characteristics and network of Arctica islandica. The multivariate linear regression methods evaluated here are Principal Component Regression and Canonical Correlation Analysis. Differences in the skill of the Climate Field Reconstruction (CFR) are assessed according to different calibration periods and different proxy locations within the NA basin. The choice of the climate model used as surrogate reality in the PPE has a more profound effect on the CFR skill than the calibration period and the statistical reconstruction method. The differences between the two methods are clearer for the MPI-ESM model, due to its higher spatial resolution in the NA basin. The pseudo-proxy results of the CCSM4 model are closer to the pseudo-proxy results based on the reanalysis data set COBE2. The addition of noise in the pseudo-proxies is important for the evaluation of the methods, as more spatial differences in the reconstruction skill are revealed. More profound differences between methods are obtained when the number of proxy records is smaller than five, making the Principal Component Regression a more appropriate method in this case. Despite the differences, the results show that the marine network of Arctica islandica can be used to skilfully reconstruct the spatial patterns of SSTs at the eastern NA basin. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctica islandica North Atlantic Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) Climate of the Past 13 10 1339 1354 |
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Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) |
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English |
description |
Two statistical methods are tested to reconstruct the inter-annual variations of past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean over the past millennium, based on annually resolved and absolutely dated marine proxy records of the bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica. The methods are tested in a pseudo-proxy experiment (PPE) set-up using state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP5 Earth System Models) and reanalysis data from the COBE2 SST data set. The methods were applied in the virtual reality provided by global climate simulations and reanalysis data to reconstruct the past NA SSTs, using pseudoproxy records that mimic the statistical characteristics and network of Arctica islandica. The multivariate linear regression methods evaluated here are Principal Component Regression and Canonical Correlation Analysis. Differences in the skill of the Climate Field Reconstruction (CFR) are assessed according to different calibration periods and different proxy locations within the NA basin. The choice of the climate model used as surrogate reality in the PPE has a more profound effect on the CFR skill than the calibration period and the statistical reconstruction method. The differences between the two methods are clearer for the MPI-ESM model, due to its higher spatial resolution in the NA basin. The pseudo-proxy results of the CCSM4 model are closer to the pseudo-proxy results based on the reanalysis data set COBE2. The addition of noise in the pseudo-proxies is important for the evaluation of the methods, as more spatial differences in the reconstruction skill are revealed. More profound differences between methods are obtained when the number of proxy records is smaller than five, making the Principal Component Regression a more appropriate method in this case. Despite the differences, the results show that the marine network of Arctica islandica can be used to skilfully reconstruct the spatial patterns of SSTs at the eastern NA basin. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pyrina, M. Wagner, S. Zorita, E. |
spellingShingle |
Pyrina, M. Wagner, S. Zorita, E. Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network |
author_facet |
Pyrina, M. Wagner, S. Zorita, E. |
author_sort |
Pyrina, M. |
title |
Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network |
title_short |
Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network |
title_full |
Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network |
title_fullStr |
Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network |
title_sort |
pseudo-proxy evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods of north atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network |
publisher |
EGU - Copernicus Publication |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://publications.hereon.de/id/35352 https://publications.hzg.de/id/35352 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017 |
genre |
Arctica islandica North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctica islandica North Atlantic |
op_source |
issn:1814-9324 Pyrina, M.; Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.: Pseudo-proxy evaluation of Climate Field Reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network . In: Climate of the Past. Vol. 13 (2017) 10, 1339 - 1354. (DOI: /10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017) |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017 urn:issn:1814-9324 https://publications.hereon.de/id/35352 https://publications.hzg.de/id/35352 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_gold |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1339-2017 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1339 |
op_container_end_page |
1354 |
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1768384140395151360 |