Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature r...
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fthzgzmk:oai:publications.hereon.de:33610 2023-06-11T04:09:49+02:00 Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium Fernandez Donado, L. Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. Garcia Bustamante, E. Goosse, H. Jungclaus, J. Bothe, O. Hegerl, G. Moberg, A. Raible, C.C. Schurer, A. Wagner, S. Zorita, E. Hind, A. Lehner, F. McKay, N. Warren, E. Widmann, M. 2015 https://publications.hereon.de/id/33610 https://publications.hzg.de/id/33610 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 en eng EGU - Copernicus Publication http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 urn:issn:1814-9324 https://publications.hereon.de/id/33610 https://publications.hzg.de/id/33610 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_gold issn:1814-9324 Fernandez Donado, L.; Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F.; Garcia Bustamante, E.; Goosse, H.; Jungclaus, J.; Bothe, O.; Hegerl, G.; Moberg, A.; Raible, C.C.; Schurer, A.; Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.; Hind, A.; Lehner, F.; McKay, N.; Warren, E.; Widmann, M.: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. In: Climate of the Past. Vol. 11 (2015) 12, 1673 - 1699. (DOI:10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015) info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/551 info:eu-repo/semantics/article Zeitschrift Artikel 2015 fthzgzmk https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 2023-05-28T23:24:12Z Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continental-scale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) Arctic Climate of the Past 11 12 1673 1699 |
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English |
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info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/551 |
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info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/551 Fernandez Donado, L. Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. Garcia Bustamante, E. Goosse, H. Jungclaus, J. Bothe, O. Hegerl, G. Moberg, A. Raible, C.C. Schurer, A. Wagner, S. Zorita, E. Hind, A. Lehner, F. McKay, N. Warren, E. Widmann, M. Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
topic_facet |
info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/551 |
description |
Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continental-scale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fernandez Donado, L. Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. Garcia Bustamante, E. Goosse, H. Jungclaus, J. Bothe, O. Hegerl, G. Moberg, A. Raible, C.C. Schurer, A. Wagner, S. Zorita, E. Hind, A. Lehner, F. McKay, N. Warren, E. Widmann, M. |
author_facet |
Fernandez Donado, L. Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. Garcia Bustamante, E. Goosse, H. Jungclaus, J. Bothe, O. Hegerl, G. Moberg, A. Raible, C.C. Schurer, A. Wagner, S. Zorita, E. Hind, A. Lehner, F. McKay, N. Warren, E. Widmann, M. |
author_sort |
Fernandez Donado, L. |
title |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_short |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_full |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_fullStr |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_full_unstemmed |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_sort |
continental-scale temperature variability in pmip3 simulations and pages 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
publisher |
EGU - Copernicus Publication |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://publications.hereon.de/id/33610 https://publications.hzg.de/id/33610 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
issn:1814-9324 Fernandez Donado, L.; Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F.; Garcia Bustamante, E.; Goosse, H.; Jungclaus, J.; Bothe, O.; Hegerl, G.; Moberg, A.; Raible, C.C.; Schurer, A.; Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.; Hind, A.; Lehner, F.; McKay, N.; Warren, E.; Widmann, M.: Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium. In: Climate of the Past. Vol. 11 (2015) 12, 1673 - 1699. (DOI:10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 urn:issn:1814-9324 https://publications.hereon.de/id/33610 https://publications.hzg.de/id/33610 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_gold |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 |
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Climate of the Past |
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12 |
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1673 |
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