Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shift...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Online Access: | https://publications.hereon.de/id/33461 https://publications.hzg.de/id/33461 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 |
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fthzgzmk:oai:publications.hereon.de:33461 2023-06-11T04:05:13+02:00 Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift Reid, P.C. Hari, R.E. Beaugrand, G. Livingstone, D.M. Marty, C. Straile, D. Barichivich, J. Goberville, E. Adrian, R. Aono, Y. Brown, R. Foster, J. Groisman, P. Helaouet, P. Hsu, H.-H. Kirby, R. Knight, J. Kraberg, A. Li, J. Lo, T.-T. Myneni, R.B. North, R.P. Pounds, J.A. Sparks, T. Stuebi, R. Tian, Y. Wiltshire, K.H. Xiao, D. Zhu, Z. 2016 https://publications.hereon.de/id/33461 https://publications.hzg.de/id/33461 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 en eng Blackwell http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 urn:issn:1354-1013 https://publications.hereon.de/id/33461 https://publications.hzg.de/id/33461 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_allgemein_hybrid issn:1354-1013 Reid, P.C.; Hari, R.E.; Beaugrand, G.; Livingstone, D.M.; Marty, C.; Straile, D.; Barichivich, J.; Goberville, E.; Adrian, R.; Aono, Y.; Brown, R.; Foster, J.; Groisman, P.; Helaouet, P.; Hsu, H.-H.; Kirby, R.; Knight, J.; Kraberg, A.; Li, J.; Lo, T.-T.; Myneni, R.B.; North, R.P.; Pounds, J.A.; Sparks, T.; Stuebi, R.; Tian, Y.; Wiltshire, K.H.; Xiao, D.; Zhu, Z.: Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift. In: Global Change Biology. Vol. 22 (2016) 2, 682 - 703. (DOI:10.1111/gcb.13106) info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/551 info:eu-repo/semantics/article Zeitschrift Artikel 2016 fthzgzmk https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 2023-05-28T23:24:10Z Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth\'s biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic Global Change Biology 22 2 682 703 |
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Hereon Publications (Helmholtz-Zentrum) |
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English |
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info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/551 |
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info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/551 Reid, P.C. Hari, R.E. Beaugrand, G. Livingstone, D.M. Marty, C. Straile, D. Barichivich, J. Goberville, E. Adrian, R. Aono, Y. Brown, R. Foster, J. Groisman, P. Helaouet, P. Hsu, H.-H. Kirby, R. Knight, J. Kraberg, A. Li, J. Lo, T.-T. Myneni, R.B. North, R.P. Pounds, J.A. Sparks, T. Stuebi, R. Tian, Y. Wiltshire, K.H. Xiao, D. Zhu, Z. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
topic_facet |
info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/551 |
description |
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth\'s biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Reid, P.C. Hari, R.E. Beaugrand, G. Livingstone, D.M. Marty, C. Straile, D. Barichivich, J. Goberville, E. Adrian, R. Aono, Y. Brown, R. Foster, J. Groisman, P. Helaouet, P. Hsu, H.-H. Kirby, R. Knight, J. Kraberg, A. Li, J. Lo, T.-T. Myneni, R.B. North, R.P. Pounds, J.A. Sparks, T. Stuebi, R. Tian, Y. Wiltshire, K.H. Xiao, D. Zhu, Z. |
author_facet |
Reid, P.C. Hari, R.E. Beaugrand, G. Livingstone, D.M. Marty, C. Straile, D. Barichivich, J. Goberville, E. Adrian, R. Aono, Y. Brown, R. Foster, J. Groisman, P. Helaouet, P. Hsu, H.-H. Kirby, R. Knight, J. Kraberg, A. Li, J. Lo, T.-T. Myneni, R.B. North, R.P. Pounds, J.A. Sparks, T. Stuebi, R. Tian, Y. Wiltshire, K.H. Xiao, D. Zhu, Z. |
author_sort |
Reid, P.C. |
title |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_short |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_full |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_fullStr |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
title_sort |
global impacts of the 1980s regime shift |
publisher |
Blackwell |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://publications.hereon.de/id/33461 https://publications.hzg.de/id/33461 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming |
op_source |
issn:1354-1013 Reid, P.C.; Hari, R.E.; Beaugrand, G.; Livingstone, D.M.; Marty, C.; Straile, D.; Barichivich, J.; Goberville, E.; Adrian, R.; Aono, Y.; Brown, R.; Foster, J.; Groisman, P.; Helaouet, P.; Hsu, H.-H.; Kirby, R.; Knight, J.; Kraberg, A.; Li, J.; Lo, T.-T.; Myneni, R.B.; North, R.P.; Pounds, J.A.; Sparks, T.; Stuebi, R.; Tian, Y.; Wiltshire, K.H.; Xiao, D.; Zhu, Z.: Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift. In: Global Change Biology. Vol. 22 (2016) 2, 682 - 703. (DOI:10.1111/gcb.13106) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 urn:issn:1354-1013 https://publications.hereon.de/id/33461 https://publications.hzg.de/id/33461 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess open_access oa_allgemein_hybrid |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13106 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
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22 |
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2 |
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682 |
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