Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global...
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Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
2020
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fthuberlin:oai:edoc.hu-berlin.de:18452/27867 2023-12-03T10:08:50+01:00 Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan Winkelmann, Ricarda 2020-10-27 application/pdf http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/27867 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/27867-9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 https://doi.org/10.18452/27211 eng eng Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/27867 urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/27867-9 doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/27211 2041-1723 (CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Climate and Earth system modelling Cryospheric science Projection and prediction 550 Geowissenschaften ddc:550 article doc-type:article publishedVersion 2020 fthuberlin https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-310.18452/27211 2023-11-05T23:36:21Z Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001659 Leibniz-Gemeinschaft (Leibniz Association) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001664 Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002347 EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council) https://doi.org/10.13039/100010663 Earth League https://doi.org/10.13039/501100010065 Peer Reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice Open-Access-Publikationsserver der Humboldt-Universität: edoc-Server Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Open-Access-Publikationsserver der Humboldt-Universität: edoc-Server |
op_collection_id |
fthuberlin |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate and Earth system modelling Cryospheric science Projection and prediction 550 Geowissenschaften ddc:550 |
spellingShingle |
Climate and Earth system modelling Cryospheric science Projection and prediction 550 Geowissenschaften ddc:550 Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan Winkelmann, Ricarda Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
topic_facet |
Climate and Earth system modelling Cryospheric science Projection and prediction 550 Geowissenschaften ddc:550 |
description |
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001659 Leibniz-Gemeinschaft (Leibniz Association) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001664 Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002347 EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council) https://doi.org/10.13039/100010663 Earth League https://doi.org/10.13039/501100010065 Peer Reviewed |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_facet |
Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Wunderling, Nico |
title |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_short |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |
title_sort |
global warming due to loss of large ice masses and arctic summer sea ice |
publisher |
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/27867 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/27867-9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 https://doi.org/10.18452/27211 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/27867 urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/27867-9 doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/27211 2041-1723 |
op_rights |
(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-310.18452/27211 |
_version_ |
1784259917619658752 |