Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
2021
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Online Access: | http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25623 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25623-0 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2 https://doi.org/10.18452/24941 |
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fthuberlin:oai:edoc.hu-berlin.de:18452/25623 2023-12-03T10:16:22+01:00 Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor CHANG, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim Thonicke, Kirsten 2021-02-10 application/pdf http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25623 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25623-0 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2 https://doi.org/10.18452/24941 eng eng Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25623 urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25623-0 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2 http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/24941 1748-9326 (CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility 333.7 Landflächen Naturräume für Freizeit und Erholung Naturreservate Energie ddc:333 article doc-type:article publishedVersion 2021 fthuberlin https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf210.18452/24941 2023-11-05T23:36:38Z Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic. Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347 Horizon 2020 Framework Programmehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Uniscientia Foundation Peer Reviewed Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arkhangelsk Chukotka Climate change Global warming Ice khanty nenets permafrost Sakha Yakutia Alaska Arkhangelsk Oblast Siberia Open-Access-Publikationsserver der Humboldt-Universität: edoc-Server Arctic Magadan ENVELOPE(150.803,150.803,59.564,59.564) Sakha Environmental Research Letters 16 2 024049 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Open-Access-Publikationsserver der Humboldt-Universität: edoc-Server |
op_collection_id |
fthuberlin |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility 333.7 Landflächen Naturräume für Freizeit und Erholung Naturreservate Energie ddc:333 |
spellingShingle |
permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility 333.7 Landflächen Naturräume für Freizeit und Erholung Naturreservate Energie ddc:333 Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor CHANG, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim Thonicke, Kirsten Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
topic_facet |
permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility 333.7 Landflächen Naturräume für Freizeit und Erholung Naturreservate Energie ddc:333 |
description |
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic. Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347 Horizon 2020 Framework Programmehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Uniscientia Foundation Peer Reviewed |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor CHANG, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim Thonicke, Kirsten |
author_facet |
Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor CHANG, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim Thonicke, Kirsten |
author_sort |
Gädeke, Anne |
title |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_short |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_full |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
title_sort |
climate change reduces winter overland travel across the pan-arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios |
publisher |
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25623 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25623-0 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2 https://doi.org/10.18452/24941 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(150.803,150.803,59.564,59.564) |
geographic |
Arctic Magadan Sakha |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Magadan Sakha |
genre |
Arctic Arkhangelsk Chukotka Climate change Global warming Ice khanty nenets permafrost Sakha Yakutia Alaska Arkhangelsk Oblast Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arkhangelsk Chukotka Climate change Global warming Ice khanty nenets permafrost Sakha Yakutia Alaska Arkhangelsk Oblast Siberia |
op_relation |
http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/18452/25623 urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/25623-0 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2 http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/24941 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
(CC BY 4.0) Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf210.18452/24941 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024049 |
_version_ |
1784263286463660032 |