Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change
We provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice‐sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4)°C occurred from 1991–2019, but since 2001 overall...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690244 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 |
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fthsvestlandet:oai:hvlopen.brage.unit.no:11250/2690244 2024-03-03T08:44:43+00:00 Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change Hanna, Edward Cappelen, John Fettweis, Xavier Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mote, Thomas L. Mottram, Ruth Steffen, Konrad Ballinger, Thomas J. Hall, Richard J. Greenland 2020 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690244 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 eng eng Wiley Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S. H., Mote, T. L., Mottram, R., … Hall, R. J. (2020). Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice‐sheet melt and mass‐balance change. International Journal of Climatology, 1–17. urn:issn:0899-8418 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690244 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 cristin:1823997 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2020 The Authors 1-17 International Journal of Climatology climate change Greenland ice sheet mass balance melt temperature Peer reviewed Journal article 2020 fthsvestlandet https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 2024-02-02T12:41:08Z We provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice‐sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4)°C occurred from 1991–2019, but since 2001 overall temperature trends are generally flat and insignificant due to a cooling pattern over the last 6–7 years. Inland and coastal stations show broadly similar temperature trends for summer. Greenland temperature changes are more strongly correlated with Greenland Blocking than with North Atlantic Oscillation changes. In quantifying the association between Greenland coastal temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass‐balance changes, we show a stronger link of temperatures with total mass balance rather than surface mass balance. Based on Greenland coastal temperatures and modelled mass balance for the 1972–2018 period, each 1°C of summer warming corresponds to ~(91) 116 Gt·yr−1 of GrIS (surface) mass loss and a 26 Gt·yr−1 increase in solid ice discharge. Given an estimated 4.0–6.6°C of further Greenland summer warming according to the regional model MAR projections run under CMIP6 future climate projections (SSP5‐8.5 scenario), and assuming that ice‐dynamical losses and ice sheet topography stay similar to the recent past, linear extrapolation gives a corresponding GrIS global sea‐level rise (SLR) contribution of ~10.0–12.6 cm by 2100, compared with the 8–27 cm (mean 15 cm) “likely” model projection range reported by IPCC in 2019 (SPM.B1.2). However, our estimate represents a lower limit for future GrIS change since fixed dynamical mass losses and amplified melt arising from both melt‐albedo and melt‐elevation positive feedbacks are not taken into account here. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Høgskulen på Vestlandet: HVL Open Greenland International Journal of Climatology 41 S1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Høgskulen på Vestlandet: HVL Open |
op_collection_id |
fthsvestlandet |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change Greenland ice sheet mass balance melt temperature |
spellingShingle |
climate change Greenland ice sheet mass balance melt temperature Hanna, Edward Cappelen, John Fettweis, Xavier Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mote, Thomas L. Mottram, Ruth Steffen, Konrad Ballinger, Thomas J. Hall, Richard J. Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
topic_facet |
climate change Greenland ice sheet mass balance melt temperature |
description |
We provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice‐sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4)°C occurred from 1991–2019, but since 2001 overall temperature trends are generally flat and insignificant due to a cooling pattern over the last 6–7 years. Inland and coastal stations show broadly similar temperature trends for summer. Greenland temperature changes are more strongly correlated with Greenland Blocking than with North Atlantic Oscillation changes. In quantifying the association between Greenland coastal temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass‐balance changes, we show a stronger link of temperatures with total mass balance rather than surface mass balance. Based on Greenland coastal temperatures and modelled mass balance for the 1972–2018 period, each 1°C of summer warming corresponds to ~(91) 116 Gt·yr−1 of GrIS (surface) mass loss and a 26 Gt·yr−1 increase in solid ice discharge. Given an estimated 4.0–6.6°C of further Greenland summer warming according to the regional model MAR projections run under CMIP6 future climate projections (SSP5‐8.5 scenario), and assuming that ice‐dynamical losses and ice sheet topography stay similar to the recent past, linear extrapolation gives a corresponding GrIS global sea‐level rise (SLR) contribution of ~10.0–12.6 cm by 2100, compared with the 8–27 cm (mean 15 cm) “likely” model projection range reported by IPCC in 2019 (SPM.B1.2). However, our estimate represents a lower limit for future GrIS change since fixed dynamical mass losses and amplified melt arising from both melt‐albedo and melt‐elevation positive feedbacks are not taken into account here. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hanna, Edward Cappelen, John Fettweis, Xavier Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mote, Thomas L. Mottram, Ruth Steffen, Konrad Ballinger, Thomas J. Hall, Richard J. |
author_facet |
Hanna, Edward Cappelen, John Fettweis, Xavier Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mote, Thomas L. Mottram, Ruth Steffen, Konrad Ballinger, Thomas J. Hall, Richard J. |
author_sort |
Hanna, Edward |
title |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_short |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_full |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_fullStr |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
title_sort |
greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice-sheet melt and mass-balance change |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690244 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 |
op_coverage |
Greenland |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
1-17 International Journal of Climatology |
op_relation |
Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S. H., Mote, T. L., Mottram, R., … Hall, R. J. (2020). Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice‐sheet melt and mass‐balance change. International Journal of Climatology, 1–17. urn:issn:0899-8418 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690244 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 cristin:1823997 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2020 The Authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
41 |
container_issue |
S1 |
_version_ |
1792500201322184704 |