Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017
Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, eviden...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2612963 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b |
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fthsvestlandet:oai:hvlopen.brage.unit.no:11250/2612963 2024-03-03T08:36:32+00:00 Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård Arctic 2019 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2612963 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b eng eng IOP Publishing Ltd. Norges forskningsråd: 274711 Vetenskapsrådet: 2017-05268 Andre: NA15OAR4320063 - NOAA Cooperative Agreement Box, J. E., Colgan, W. T., Christensen, T. R., Schmidt, N. M., Lund, M., Parmentier, F.-J. W., . . . Olsen, M. S. (2019). Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017. Environmental Research Letters, 14(4). urn:issn:1748-9326 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2612963 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b cristin:1696725 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2019 © 2018 The Author(s) 1-19 14:045010 Environmental Research Letters 4 Arctic climate change observational records AMAP VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450 Journal article Peer reviewed 2019 fthsvestlandet https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b 2024-02-02T12:41:02Z Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper AMAP Arctic Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Sea ice Tundra Høgskulen på Vestlandet: HVL Open Arctic Environmental Research Letters 14 4 045010 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Høgskulen på Vestlandet: HVL Open |
op_collection_id |
fthsvestlandet |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic climate change observational records AMAP VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic climate change observational records AMAP VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450 Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
topic_facet |
Arctic climate change observational records AMAP VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450 |
description |
Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård |
author_facet |
Box, Jason E. Colgan, William T. Christensen, Torben Røjle Schmidt, Niels Martin Lund, Magnus Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. Brown, Ross Bhatt, Uma S. Euskirchen, Eugénie S. Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Walsh, John E. Overland, James E. Wang, Muyin Corell, Robert Meier, Walter N. Wouters, Bert Mernild, Jacob Sebastian Haugaard Mård, Johanna Pawlak, Janet Olsen, Morten Skovgård |
author_sort |
Box, Jason E. |
title |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_short |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_full |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_fullStr |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_sort |
key indicators of arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
publisher |
IOP Publishing Ltd. |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2612963 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b |
op_coverage |
Arctic |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
AMAP Arctic Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Sea ice Tundra |
genre_facet |
AMAP Arctic Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Sea ice Tundra |
op_source |
1-19 14:045010 Environmental Research Letters 4 |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 274711 Vetenskapsrådet: 2017-05268 Andre: NA15OAR4320063 - NOAA Cooperative Agreement Box, J. E., Colgan, W. T., Christensen, T. R., Schmidt, N. M., Lund, M., Parmentier, F.-J. W., . . . Olsen, M. S. (2019). Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017. Environmental Research Letters, 14(4). urn:issn:1748-9326 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2612963 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b cristin:1696725 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2019 © 2018 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
045010 |
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1792507240068939776 |