The effects of teleconnections on climate variability of the North Atlantic-European area
Observed data, reanalysis and an intermediately complex general circulation model of the atmosphere (ICTP AGCM) have been employed to study the effects of teleconnections on the North Atlantic-European region as a part of this thesis. Modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnect...
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fthrcak:oai:hrcak.srce.hr:318377 2024-09-09T19:55:00+00:00 The effects of teleconnections on climate variability of the North Atlantic-European area Ivasić, Sara 2023 application/pdf https://hrcak.srce.hr/318377 https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/460103 eng eng Croatian meteorological society https://hrcak.srce.hr/318377 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The papers of this Journal are free of charge for personal or educational use, with respect of copyright of authors and publisher. Hrvatski meteorološki časopis ISSN 1330-0083 (Print) ISSN 1849-0700 (Online) Volume 56 Issue 56 climate variability North Atlantic-European climate Tropical-extratropical teleconnections ENSO teleconnections boundary-forced predictability text info:eu-repo/semantics/other info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2023 fthrcak 2024-07-05T03:23:05Z Observed data, reanalysis and an intermediately complex general circulation model of the atmosphere (ICTP AGCM) have been employed to study the effects of teleconnections on the North Atlantic-European region as a part of this thesis. Modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been tested via regression maps, running correlation, composite analysis and probability distributions. The impact of tropical ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the variability and predictable components of the late-winter atmospheric circulation over the NAE area has been investigated by employing advanced analysis techniques, such as the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis and the signal-to-noise optimal patterns method. Targeted model simulations were designed to detect which ocean areas are the most important for establishing potentially predictable modes of atmospheric circulation in the NAE area. Finally, specific numerical model simulations were used to assess the impact of the warmer climate conditions on the variability and predictable components of the late winter circulation in the area of interest. Results have shown that the ENSO teleconnection to the NAE region is not stationary. Its spatial pattern has changed from resembling the negative NAO at the surface to a different pattern with weak, statistically non-significant values after the 1970s. Meanwhile, targeted ICTP AGCM simulations confirmed the importance of sea-ice concentration and the background state of the sea surface temperatures in the modulation of the ENSO-NAE teleconnection. The change was detected at the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere in several variables and different datasets. Regarding the impact of tropical SSTs, it is suggested that the lower-boundary forcing originating from the tropics, especially the tropical Pacific, is essential for establishing the potentially predictable modes of ... Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Hrčak - Portal of scientific journals of Croatia Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Hrčak - Portal of scientific journals of Croatia |
op_collection_id |
fthrcak |
language |
English |
topic |
climate variability North Atlantic-European climate Tropical-extratropical teleconnections ENSO teleconnections boundary-forced predictability |
spellingShingle |
climate variability North Atlantic-European climate Tropical-extratropical teleconnections ENSO teleconnections boundary-forced predictability Ivasić, Sara The effects of teleconnections on climate variability of the North Atlantic-European area |
topic_facet |
climate variability North Atlantic-European climate Tropical-extratropical teleconnections ENSO teleconnections boundary-forced predictability |
description |
Observed data, reanalysis and an intermediately complex general circulation model of the atmosphere (ICTP AGCM) have been employed to study the effects of teleconnections on the North Atlantic-European region as a part of this thesis. Modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been tested via regression maps, running correlation, composite analysis and probability distributions. The impact of tropical ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the variability and predictable components of the late-winter atmospheric circulation over the NAE area has been investigated by employing advanced analysis techniques, such as the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis and the signal-to-noise optimal patterns method. Targeted model simulations were designed to detect which ocean areas are the most important for establishing potentially predictable modes of atmospheric circulation in the NAE area. Finally, specific numerical model simulations were used to assess the impact of the warmer climate conditions on the variability and predictable components of the late winter circulation in the area of interest. Results have shown that the ENSO teleconnection to the NAE region is not stationary. Its spatial pattern has changed from resembling the negative NAO at the surface to a different pattern with weak, statistically non-significant values after the 1970s. Meanwhile, targeted ICTP AGCM simulations confirmed the importance of sea-ice concentration and the background state of the sea surface temperatures in the modulation of the ENSO-NAE teleconnection. The change was detected at the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere in several variables and different datasets. Regarding the impact of tropical SSTs, it is suggested that the lower-boundary forcing originating from the tropics, especially the tropical Pacific, is essential for establishing the potentially predictable modes of ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Ivasić, Sara |
author_facet |
Ivasić, Sara |
author_sort |
Ivasić, Sara |
title |
The effects of teleconnections on climate variability of the North Atlantic-European area |
title_short |
The effects of teleconnections on climate variability of the North Atlantic-European area |
title_full |
The effects of teleconnections on climate variability of the North Atlantic-European area |
title_fullStr |
The effects of teleconnections on climate variability of the North Atlantic-European area |
title_full_unstemmed |
The effects of teleconnections on climate variability of the North Atlantic-European area |
title_sort |
effects of teleconnections on climate variability of the north atlantic-european area |
publisher |
Croatian meteorological society |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hrcak.srce.hr/318377 https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/460103 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Hrvatski meteorološki časopis ISSN 1330-0083 (Print) ISSN 1849-0700 (Online) Volume 56 Issue 56 |
op_relation |
https://hrcak.srce.hr/318377 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The papers of this Journal are free of charge for personal or educational use, with respect of copyright of authors and publisher. |
_version_ |
1809924471671226368 |