Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/91357 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 |
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fthokunivhus:oai:eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp:2115/91357 2024-04-21T07:50:05+00:00 Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty Seroussi, Hélène Verjans, Vincent Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Gregory, Jonathan M Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R Lowry, Daniel P Little, Chistopher M Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas Van Katwyk, Peter van de Wal, Roderik S. W Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas http://hdl.handle.net/2115/91357 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 eng eng Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) http://hdl.handle.net/2115/91357 The Cryosphere, 17(12): 5197-5217 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 450 article fthokunivhus https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 2024-03-27T15:12:52Z The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers (HUSCAP) The Cryosphere 17 12 5197 5217 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers (HUSCAP) |
op_collection_id |
fthokunivhus |
language |
English |
topic |
450 |
spellingShingle |
450 Seroussi, Hélène Verjans, Vincent Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Gregory, Jonathan M Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R Lowry, Daniel P Little, Chistopher M Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas Van Katwyk, Peter van de Wal, Roderik S. W Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
topic_facet |
450 |
description |
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Seroussi, Hélène Verjans, Vincent Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Gregory, Jonathan M Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R Lowry, Daniel P Little, Chistopher M Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas Van Katwyk, Peter van de Wal, Roderik S. W Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_facet |
Seroussi, Hélène Verjans, Vincent Nowicki, Sophie Payne, Antony J Goelzer, Heiko Lipscomb, William H Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Albrecht, Torsten Asay-Davis, Xylar Barthel, Alice Calov, Reinhard Cullather, Richard Dumas, Christophe Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R Gregory, Jonathan M Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C Kleiner, Thomas Larour, Eric Leguy, Gunter R Lowry, Daniel P Little, Chistopher M Morlighem, Mathieu Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne Shepherd, Andrew Simon, Erika Smith, Robin S Straneo, Fiammetta Sun, Sainan Trusel, Luke D Van Breedam, Jonas Van Katwyk, Peter van de Wal, Roderik S. W Winkelmann, Ricarda Zhao, Chen Zhang, Tong Zwinger, Thomas |
author_sort |
Seroussi, Hélène |
title |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_short |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_full |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_sort |
insights into the vulnerability of antarctic glaciers from the ismip6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2115/91357 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/2115/91357 The Cryosphere, 17(12): 5197-5217 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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17 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5197 |
op_container_end_page |
5217 |
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1796933950582554624 |