A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming
In June-July 2020 two remarkable weather events occurred in northern Eurasia. One is a severe heat wave that produced a record-breaking temperature of 38 degrees C at Verkhoyansk, eastern Siberia on 20 June. The other one is heavy rainfall events observed in East Asia (southern China and southwester...
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fthokunivhus:oai:eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp:2115/86712 2023-05-15T14:48:43+02:00 A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming Nakamura, Tetsu Sato, Tomonori http://hdl.handle.net/2115/86712 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.112881 eng eng Elsevier http://hdl.handle.net/2115/86712 Environmental Research, 209: 112881 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.112881 Arctic warming Heat wave Heavy rainfall Meiyu-Baiu front Blocking high Weather hazards Ensemble forecast Climate modelling 451 article fthokunivhus https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.112881 2022-11-18T01:07:06Z In June-July 2020 two remarkable weather events occurred in northern Eurasia. One is a severe heat wave that produced a record-breaking temperature of 38 degrees C at Verkhoyansk, eastern Siberia on 20 June. The other one is heavy rainfall events observed in East Asia (southern China and southwestern Japan) in early July, causing severe floods that brought about considerable damage to infrastructure and the economy, as well as the loss of human lives. Despite the accumulated evidence of stronger and more extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall as a result of global warming, little is known about the linkage between these phenomena. Given that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global mean, Arctic warming might be enhancing the increase of heavy rainfall events in East Asia. Here, we investigated the relationship between the Siberian heat wave and the East Asian heavy rainfall that occurred summer in 2020. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to atmospheric reanalysis data of 1958-2020 period captures dominant summer circulation patterns reflecting atmospheric internal variability and externally forced anomalies. On the basis of these EOF patterns, operational forecasts of summer 2020 using the global model from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and a global climate model experiment based on 2-K warming future projection are utilized to examine roles of the internal variability and external forcing, respectively. Consistent results between them reveal that development of the blocking high over eastern Siberia has certain impacts on rainfall anomalies over East Asia. By a statistical technique applied to the ensemble forecast data, prediction of the East Asian precipitation is improved by 10-20% of its amplitude. Our research demonstrates possibility that East Asian rainfall is being enhanced by high-latitude atmospheric circulations due to the Arctic warming even in the current climate in which the tropical warming is not yet severe. Suggestions are given that continued Arctic warming ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Siberia Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers (HUSCAP) Arctic Verkhoyansk ENVELOPE(133.400,133.400,67.544,67.544) Environmental Research 209 112881 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers (HUSCAP) |
op_collection_id |
fthokunivhus |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic warming Heat wave Heavy rainfall Meiyu-Baiu front Blocking high Weather hazards Ensemble forecast Climate modelling 451 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic warming Heat wave Heavy rainfall Meiyu-Baiu front Blocking high Weather hazards Ensemble forecast Climate modelling 451 Nakamura, Tetsu Sato, Tomonori A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming |
topic_facet |
Arctic warming Heat wave Heavy rainfall Meiyu-Baiu front Blocking high Weather hazards Ensemble forecast Climate modelling 451 |
description |
In June-July 2020 two remarkable weather events occurred in northern Eurasia. One is a severe heat wave that produced a record-breaking temperature of 38 degrees C at Verkhoyansk, eastern Siberia on 20 June. The other one is heavy rainfall events observed in East Asia (southern China and southwestern Japan) in early July, causing severe floods that brought about considerable damage to infrastructure and the economy, as well as the loss of human lives. Despite the accumulated evidence of stronger and more extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall as a result of global warming, little is known about the linkage between these phenomena. Given that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global mean, Arctic warming might be enhancing the increase of heavy rainfall events in East Asia. Here, we investigated the relationship between the Siberian heat wave and the East Asian heavy rainfall that occurred summer in 2020. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to atmospheric reanalysis data of 1958-2020 period captures dominant summer circulation patterns reflecting atmospheric internal variability and externally forced anomalies. On the basis of these EOF patterns, operational forecasts of summer 2020 using the global model from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and a global climate model experiment based on 2-K warming future projection are utilized to examine roles of the internal variability and external forcing, respectively. Consistent results between them reveal that development of the blocking high over eastern Siberia has certain impacts on rainfall anomalies over East Asia. By a statistical technique applied to the ensemble forecast data, prediction of the East Asian precipitation is improved by 10-20% of its amplitude. Our research demonstrates possibility that East Asian rainfall is being enhanced by high-latitude atmospheric circulations due to the Arctic warming even in the current climate in which the tropical warming is not yet severe. Suggestions are given that continued Arctic warming ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nakamura, Tetsu Sato, Tomonori |
author_facet |
Nakamura, Tetsu Sato, Tomonori |
author_sort |
Nakamura, Tetsu |
title |
A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming |
title_short |
A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming |
title_full |
A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming |
title_fullStr |
A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
A possible linkage of Eurasian heat wave and East Asian heavy rainfall in Relation to the Rapid Arctic warming |
title_sort |
possible linkage of eurasian heat wave and east asian heavy rainfall in relation to the rapid arctic warming |
publisher |
Elsevier |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2115/86712 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.112881 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(133.400,133.400,67.544,67.544) |
geographic |
Arctic Verkhoyansk |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Verkhoyansk |
genre |
Arctic Global warming Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming Siberia |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/2115/86712 Environmental Research, 209: 112881 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.112881 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2022.112881 |
container_title |
Environmental Research |
container_volume |
209 |
container_start_page |
112881 |
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1766319810712436736 |