Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

• Published in: Earth System Dynamics
• Main Authors: Levermann, Anders, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Albrecht, Torsten, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas R, Greve, Ralf, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jordan, Jim, Leguy, Gunter, Martin, Daniel, Morlighem, Mathieu, Pattyn, Frank, Pollard, David, Quiquet, Aurelien, Rodehacke, Christian, Seroussi, Helene, Sutter, Johannes, Zhang, Tong, Van Breedam, Jonas, Calov, Reinhard, DeConto, Robert, Dumas, Christophe, Garbe, Julius, Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar, Hoffman, Matthew J, Humbert, Angelika, Kleiner, Thomas, Lipscomb, William H, Meinshausen, Malte, Ng, Esmond, Nowicki, Sophie M. J, Perego, Mauro, Price, Stephen F, Saito, Fuyuki, Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne, Sun, Sainan, van de Wal, Roderik S. W
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Subjects: 452; Antarctic; Southern Ocean; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Ice Sheet; Ice Shelf
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/76863; https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020

The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain ...