Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns
A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells, or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the recurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulat...
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fthindawi:oai:hindawi.com:10.1155/2018/3140915 2023-05-15T17:28:40+02:00 Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Pascal Yiou Julien Cattiaux Aurélien Ribes Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac 2018 https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915 en eng Complexity https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915 Copyright © 2018 Pascal Yiou et al. Research Article 2018 fthindawi https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915 2019-05-26T09:35:10Z A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells, or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the recurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulation. This paper presents a set of diagnostics of the intra- and interannual recurrence of atmospheric patterns. Those diagnostics are devised to detect trends in the stability of the circulation and the return period of atmospheric patterns. We detect significant emerging trends in the winter circulation, pointing towards a potential increased predictability. No such signal seems to emerge in the summer. We find that the winter trends in the dominating atmospheric patterns and their recurrences do not depend of the patterns themselves. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Hindawi Publishing Corporation Complexity 2018 1 8 |
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Open Polar |
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Hindawi Publishing Corporation |
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fthindawi |
language |
English |
description |
A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells, or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the recurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulation. This paper presents a set of diagnostics of the intra- and interannual recurrence of atmospheric patterns. Those diagnostics are devised to detect trends in the stability of the circulation and the return period of atmospheric patterns. We detect significant emerging trends in the winter circulation, pointing towards a potential increased predictability. No such signal seems to emerge in the summer. We find that the winter trends in the dominating atmospheric patterns and their recurrences do not depend of the patterns themselves. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pascal Yiou Julien Cattiaux Aurélien Ribes Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac |
spellingShingle |
Pascal Yiou Julien Cattiaux Aurélien Ribes Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
author_facet |
Pascal Yiou Julien Cattiaux Aurélien Ribes Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac |
author_sort |
Pascal Yiou |
title |
Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_short |
Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_full |
Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_fullStr |
Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
title_sort |
recent trends in the recurrence of north atlantic atmospheric circulation patterns |
publisher |
Complexity |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2018 Pascal Yiou et al. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915 |
container_title |
Complexity |
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2018 |
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1 |
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8 |
_version_ |
1766121475012558848 |