ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China
Precisely quantitative assessments of stream flow response to climatic change and permafrost thawing are highly challenging and urgent in cold regions. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of runoff in permafrost regions, which has limited...
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fthindawi:oai:hindawi.com:10.1155/2017/9451802 2023-05-15T17:57:24+02:00 ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China Chang Juan Wang Genxu Mao Tianxu Sun Xiangyang 2017 https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/9451802 en eng Advances in Meteorology https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/9451802 Copyright © 2017 Chang Juan et al. Research Article 2017 fthindawi https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/9451802 2019-05-26T08:43:04Z Precisely quantitative assessments of stream flow response to climatic change and permafrost thawing are highly challenging and urgent in cold regions. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of runoff in permafrost regions, which has limited the development of physically based models in these regions. To identify the impacts of climate change in the runoff process in the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, two artificial neural network (ANN) models, one with three input variables (previous runoff, air temperature, and precipitation) and another with two input variables (air temperature and precipitation only), were developed to simulate and predict the runoff variation in the TRHR. The results show that the three-input variable ANN model has a superior real-time prediction capability and performs well in the simulation and forecasting of the runoff variation in the TRHR. Under the different scenarios conditions, the forecasting results of ANN model indicated that climate change has a great effect on the runoff processes in the TRHR. The results of this study are of practical significance for water resources management and the evaluation of the impacts of climatic change on the hydrological regime in long-term considerations. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Hindawi Publishing Corporation Advances in Meteorology 2017 1 13 |
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Hindawi Publishing Corporation |
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fthindawi |
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English |
description |
Precisely quantitative assessments of stream flow response to climatic change and permafrost thawing are highly challenging and urgent in cold regions. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of runoff in permafrost regions, which has limited the development of physically based models in these regions. To identify the impacts of climate change in the runoff process in the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, two artificial neural network (ANN) models, one with three input variables (previous runoff, air temperature, and precipitation) and another with two input variables (air temperature and precipitation only), were developed to simulate and predict the runoff variation in the TRHR. The results show that the three-input variable ANN model has a superior real-time prediction capability and performs well in the simulation and forecasting of the runoff variation in the TRHR. Under the different scenarios conditions, the forecasting results of ANN model indicated that climate change has a great effect on the runoff processes in the TRHR. The results of this study are of practical significance for water resources management and the evaluation of the impacts of climatic change on the hydrological regime in long-term considerations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chang Juan Wang Genxu Mao Tianxu Sun Xiangyang |
spellingShingle |
Chang Juan Wang Genxu Mao Tianxu Sun Xiangyang ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China |
author_facet |
Chang Juan Wang Genxu Mao Tianxu Sun Xiangyang |
author_sort |
Chang Juan |
title |
ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China |
title_short |
ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China |
title_full |
ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China |
title_fullStr |
ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China |
title_full_unstemmed |
ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China |
title_sort |
ann model-based simulation of the runoff variation in response to climate change on the qinghai-tibet plateau, china |
publisher |
Advances in Meteorology |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/9451802 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/9451802 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2017 Chang Juan et al. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/9451802 |
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Advances in Meteorology |
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2017 |
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1 |
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13 |
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1766165822444666880 |